573 FXUS65 KABQ 142151 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 251 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 249 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 Northwest winds creating hazardous crosswinds in the central highlands will continue through the late afternoon. Light northern mountain show showers are possible Friday as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in. Colder than average temperatures will continue through Saturday, but a warming trend over the weekend will bring temperatures up to near average by early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 249 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 Northwest winds were gusty this afternoon in some of the usual places in northwest flow such as Clines Corners, so will keep the current Wind Advisory going to it's expiration at 5PM. Low temperatures will be a few degrees colder tonight compared to last night. Weak high pressure to build down the eastern plains tonight, resulting in several degrees of cooling on Thursday for that part of the CWA. Clouds will be increasing over northwest and into north central NM Thursday, associated with another disturbance in northwest flow. This will pass over the region Thursday night/Friday with models agreeing in some spotty snowfall over the northern high terrain and along the northeast NM/southeast CO border. At this time, sub advisory snow amounts are forecast. A reinforcement of colder air is expected over the CWA Thursday night keeping overnight temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees colder than normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 A weak shortwave will pass through New Mexico on Friday, but the lack of moisture over the region will limit precipitation to just a few snow showers in the northern mountains. Depending on the timing of a backdoor cold front entering from southeast Colorado, a brief period of snow creating winter driving conditions is possible in the northeast corner of the state Friday morning. Friday will also be cold, with temperatures 5-15 degrees below average statewide. However, a warming trend over the weekend will bring temperatures up to around average on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Another lee side low will develop in southeast Colorado on Saturday, bringing breezy conditions back to the central highlands over the weekend. Winds may begin to further increase into early next week as a Pacific shortwave passes through New Mexico. Recent ensemble guidance has suggested this wave will be even drier and weaker than previous runs have shown, resulting in a few southwest mountain snow showers at most. Regardless, it will likely bring an increase in high clouds across the region and a slight uptick in winds along the eastern plains. Around Wednesday of next week, an Arctic surface high begins to descend down from Canada along the front range of the Rocky Mountains. While the brunt of this cold airmass will likely be east of New Mexico, there is still a chance that a backdoor cold front will sweep through eastern New Mexico, bringing in much colder temperatures. On the other hand, it's just as likely that temperatures continue the recent warming trend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 941 AM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 Northwest winds aloft persist over NM with gusts to around 35-40kt along the central mt chain and into the adjacent high plains until around 15/00Z. Sct to occasionally bkn mid clouds over the ne quarter of NM to decrease with drier air overspreading the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM MST Wed Dec 14 2022 In general, dry northwest flow aloft will dominate through early next week, along with below normal temperatures. That said, a disturbance late Thursday through early Friday will bring spotty light snowfall to the northern mountains and far northeast. A second disturbance tracking from southwest to east over NM late in the weekend may also produce spotty light precipitation over the some of the western and central high terrain. Fair to poor ventilation will dominate Thursday although some locally good rates are forecast along the Continental Divide and along the central mountain chain. Rates improve across much of the west and into the Central Highlands Friday. Widespread poor rates forecast Saturday through next Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 12 36 11 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 2 31 0 33 / 0 5 5 0 Cuba............................ 9 32 8 29 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 6 37 5 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 8 34 8 29 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 5 39 6 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 10 36 9 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 16 41 16 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 13 39 12 31 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 7 43 10 40 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 18 44 19 45 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 0 27 0 27 / 0 20 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 18 33 12 28 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 15 36 12 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 2 29 6 24 / 0 5 20 5 Red River....................... 5 28 3 22 / 0 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... -2 28 -3 22 / 0 10 20 10 Taos............................ 5 31 4 28 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 12 34 8 29 / 0 0 10 5 Espanola........................ 9 37 8 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 16 34 12 30 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 13 36 13 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 21 39 20 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 20 41 22 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 14 42 16 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 19 41 19 38 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 17 44 16 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 17 42 18 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 14 42 15 40 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 18 42 18 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 16 43 16 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 18 38 18 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 19 41 19 38 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 19 46 20 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 17 33 15 29 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 18 36 17 32 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 15 36 13 32 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 11 38 10 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 13 33 12 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 15 37 15 33 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 17 38 17 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 20 43 20 40 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 19 40 20 35 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 9 32 8 28 / 0 0 30 0 Raton........................... 8 36 7 32 / 0 0 20 0 Springer........................ 9 36 8 33 / 0 0 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 11 36 10 31 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 14 38 15 33 / 0 0 20 0 Roy............................. 13 35 12 30 / 0 0 10 0 Conchas......................... 16 40 16 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 17 43 16 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 16 42 17 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 21 41 19 36 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 22 43 20 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 21 45 21 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 22 52 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 24 49 24 43 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 21 48 22 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...99