056 
FXUS64 KMEG 141658
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1058 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

GOES-16 satellite trends and 12Z upper air analysis places an 
upper level trough over the Rockies with a stacked upper level low
located over Northeast Nebraska. Meanwhile, a surface low is 
located in Northeast Nebraska with an occluding front located from
Central Iowa to Eastern Missouri and along the Mississippi River 
in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends 
show the majority of the rain showers have moved south and east of
the Mid-South with some stratiform rain occurring across western 
sections of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 10 AM CST, 
temperatures across the Mid-South range from the middle 50s to 
lower 60s. 

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions
suggest the development of additional showers and perhaps an
isolated elevated thunderstorm across the area this afternoon as 
the aforementioned secondary shortwave trough rotates through the
region. Some minor adjustments to pops will be made to account 
for short term trends. Otherwise, forecast overall is in good 
shape. 

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Rain continues across northeast Mississippi this morning as a
frontal boundary is draped across the eastern area and will
continue to serve focus for rain today. Showers and storms will
continue to train over the same areas where a Flood Watch is in
effect. Another shortwave will rotate through later today and help
enhance shower and storm development as well. Another wet day is
in the cards for the Mid South. The good news is that severe
weather does not seem to be an issue as all the instability will 
be well south of the area. We will only have to worry about the 
flood threat. The WPC maintains a Slight Risk of Excessive 
Rainfall across northeast Mississippi today as high PW values and 
saturated soils will continue to contribute to flooding across the
region. At minimum an additional 1 to 2 inches can be expected 
across the region today. Rain should come to an end this evening. 
Colder and drier air will filter into the Mid-South for the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend and a more 
zonal flow looks to set up. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and 
overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s. The bigger story on 
the horizon will be the cold weather being advertised by global 
models. Long range models hint at a few chances for a wintry mix 
of precipitation over the next week. We will have to monitor this 
situation, but the temperatures by midweek next week look to be 
very cold. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at all sites
through the day. Winds will veer WNW as the cold front approaches
the region. Upon the fronts arrival, expect low visibilities and
the highest chances for thunderstorms beginning around 15z at
KJBR. Winds will also peak during the frontal passage varying from
7-11 kts and probable gusty conditions. IFR conditions are
expected to prevail until this evening (00z) with VFR and MVFR
conditions from there. 

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ002>006-009-012>017-
     020>024.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ053>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...DNM