719 
FXUS63 KEAX 102130
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2022

Key Messages

- Cloudy and dreary conditions continue for the next few days;
  however the sun looks to make a brief appearance tomorrow.

- Fog is anticipated for the next couple of mornings. Visibility 
  impacts similar this morning are expected.

- More substantial showers are forecasted starting Tuesday morning. 
Some isolated thunderstorms are possible. No severe weather is 
anticipated.


Detailed Discussion

Drizzle and light rain from this morning have moved out of the area 
ushered by an upper level wave that passed by this morning. Low 
level flow has remained essentially nonexistent which has kept the 
low clouds and light fog around the region. This is mostly due to a 
surface high pressure system that is slowly exiting eastward out of 
the region. Calm and cloudy conditions continue for the remainder of 
the afternoon. Satellite imagery shows the low level cloud deck 
slowly eroding its way toward the east; however, at the time of 
writing, only small portions of NE KS and NW MO were getting peaks 
of the sun. For most areas clouds will linger through sunset. Low 
level moisture remains fairly prevalent through the night which, 
when combined with the calm winds, sets up an environment favorable 
for fog development. Visibility reductions appear to be fairly 
minimal at this time with impacts expected to be similar to what we 
have see the past couple of days fluctuation between 3-5 miles of 
visibility. If clouds do fully clear across NW MO some freezing fog 
is possible as lows dip further below freezing. Widespread ice 
accumulations are not expected with any accumulations being 
concentrated to metal objects and/or very low traveled surfaces.

The sun looks to make a brief appearance on Sunday; however, winds 
turn back southerly during the afternoon pushing more low level 
moisture and cloud cover into the region. This is in part due to a 
deep synoptic trough working its way onshore across the western 
CONUS. Broad enhanced low level flow boosts gusty surface winds 
across the central CONUS Monday and Tuesday. This also funnels warm 
air out of the desert SW combining it with warm, more moisture rich 
Gulf air. Temperatures reach into the 50s on Monday and the upper 
50s to near 60F on Tuesday. However, this warmth is short lived as a 
sweeping cold front knocks temperatures quickly back toward seasonal 
normals. Expansive isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front 
initiates stratiform rain early Tuesday morning that linger through 
most of the day. The warm front is expected to pass through around 
midday. Low level warm air advection in the warm sector of the 
system may escalate some instability and foster some isolated 
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. CAPE values are fairy 
lackluster and severe potential remains very low; however, 
antecedent blustery winds mean that any cell that maintains solid 
vertical motion will produce gusty winds. While convective potential 
remains limited, the expansive stratiform rainfall looks to put down 
around 0.75"-1" of precipitation which will make a healthy dent into 
the remaining deficit for calendar year 2022.

A subtle block across Newfoundland stifles the eastward progress of 
the Mon/Tue's low creating a strong push of cold air and blustery 
conditions late next week. This heads an overall colder pattern that 
manifests itself over the coming weeks. Climatic teleconnections 
suggest average temperatures for late December running below normal. 
This does not mean that there is going to be a prolonged period of 
bitter cold temperatures; in fact, a day or two of above seasonal 
temperatures is possible. What is does indicate is that average 
temperatures are more likely to be below the typical 40F average 
high we experience during this part of the year. Right now is a 
great time to ensure that you, your home, and any friends and 
neighbors are prepared for colder temperatures as we move deeper 
into the cold season.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2022

BR should dissipate over the next couple of hours; however, low 
CIGs stick around the 1000ft mark for much of the period. CIGs do
slowly rise through the afternoon. Low clouds look to break up 
after sunset; however some SCT coverage around 1000ft is possible 
through the remainder of the period. Calm winds persist. Guidance
is showing good signals for some FG/BR VIS impacts for much of Sunday
morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel