807 FXUS62 KTAE 060044 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 744 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 743 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 The main concern overnight is the potential for dense fog. We're already seeing areas of dense fog across Apalachee Bay gradually spreading inland. Most of the guidance shows this fog expanding across the entire forecast area tonight, and this looks reasonable. A dense fog advisory has been issued to cover the entire land area through the mid-morning hours. The coastal marine area may see the fog hang around until the early afternoon hours. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 A rather stout 500 mb mid to upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the central Gulf of Mexico, which will keep much of the region under its influence. Given this mid and upper level ridge, higher atmospheric heights will generally lead to warmer temperatures. With warm advection occurring along portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia, weak showers can't be ruled out through the remainder of tonight and through the day on Tuesday. With minimal upper level forcing in place given the upper level ridging and subsidence aloft, rainfall chances will generally remain less than 20% across the aforementioned areas. Overall, the biggest concern will be the chance for dense fog across a wide portion of the forecast area in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Apalachee Bay Tuesday morning. This may necessitate a dense fog for inland zones as well as a marine dense fog for Apalachee Bay. Generally speaking Tuesday will bring another warm day with highs in the mid 70s and lows will be in the low 60s to upper 50s Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 Ridging builds into the region for this period which will lead to increasing temperatures and dry weather. Highs for this period will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, while overnight lows only fall into the upper 50s and low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 Upper level ridging continues through Thursday and begins to break down at the start of the weekend. Ensembles show varying degrees of an upper level sweep across the southern Great Lakes region. This may bring a weak frontal boundary through the region but precipitation is expected to be negligible at this point. Cooler temperatures return for the weekend, with highs falling back into the mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest over the coastal communities and in the SE Big Bend. A slightly better chance for precip may arrive Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 While VFR conditions will start the period, there is high confidence that cigs/vsbys will begin to lower around midnight, with LIFR developing at all TAF sites overnight. LIFR will persist into late Tuesday morning, with gradual improvement to VFR during the afternoon. Winds southerly around 5 kts or less through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 The Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect across the northern marine zones in Apalachee Bay through 4pm ET. Mariners should continue to head caution for the next several hours while boating across these areas. Fog may be possible again tonight and into tomorrow, but may be more widespread. Outside of fog, favorable boating conditions are expected for much of the week. Winds will be around 5 to 10 kt and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 With low mixing heights and light transport winds forecast for the next several days, we are expecting low dispersions areawide through Wednesday. Outside of low dispersions, minimum RH values will remain high enough that there are not expected to be any fire weather concerns over the next few days; however, with dry conditions continuing, any dry and windy conditions could lead to more enhanced concerns down the road. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 154 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 There are no hydrology concerns as little to no rainfall is expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 62 77 60 79 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 63 76 63 76 / 10 20 0 0 Dothan 60 77 62 78 / 10 10 0 0 Albany 59 76 61 78 / 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 59 78 58 79 / 0 10 0 0 Cross City 59 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 74 62 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ007>019- 026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. GA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-750-752-755- 765. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...LF MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR