933 FXUS62 KCHS 050345 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1045 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain stalled nearby through Tuesday, then lift north. High pressure will briefly build in before a cold front sweeps through late Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Radar is actually showing some very light returns within the altocumulus/altostratus clouds. However, nothing more than a few sprinkles would occur given a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. We did not add mention of any mentionable PoPs to the forecast for tonight. Previous discussion... A west to northwest flow will prevail aloft between an anticyclone in Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, and a exiting short wave trough off New England the the Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface we find an east-west oriented cold front to the south, while high pressure slowly builds in from the north. Winds have decoupled in many places and are generally light or calm, and will stay that way most of the night. There remains considerable mid and high level clouds which will persist, and this could have implications of how much fog is able to occur. With the formation of a weak surface trough nearby and some pooling of moisture, we show patchy to areas of fog over much of southeast Georgia after 2 or 3 AM. If cloud cover is able to thin out enough there might be a risk for locally dense fog. But simulated satellite imagery does show the clouds persisting. Recent temp trends support lowering our min temp values down into the mid and upper 40s north and west, 50-55F south and east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure along the East Coast will slowly shift northeast Monday through Wednesday. Along the southern periphery, a front will remain stalled over the local area Monday into Tuesday before lifting north Tuesday night. A potent shortwave will move through late Monday into Tuesday. Weak moist isentropic lift will overspread the area Monday afternoon and continue through midday Tuesday before diminishing, potentially bringing a few rain showers. Dry weather is expected late Tuesday through Wednesday. As the NE winds gradually veer to SE and then S by late Tuesday, a significant warming trend is anticipated with highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday and upper 70s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep layered ridging expected Wednesday night through Friday, then a cold front will sweep through late Friday. Moisture return ahead of the front will be quite limited so only isolated showers are expected and primarily across far northern areas. Slightly cooler weather expected Friday night through Sunday as high pressure builds in. Another cold front could approach late Sunday. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Maybe a small period of flight restrictions at KSAV due to low stratus and/or light fog between 09Z and 13Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all terminals with the 00Z TAFs. Extended Aviation Outlook: Low chance for MVFR ceilings or vsbys Monday night. && .MARINE... Tonight: A cold front will lie to the south of the marine area, while high pressure continues to build in from the north. N and NE winds will generally be no more than 10 or 15 kt, except for a possible slightly higher surge over the AMZ350 waters late. Seas will average 2 to 4 feet, highest as one navigates from shore. While confidence is not that great, there are enough indications that at least patchy fog will impact the waters close to the Georgia coast and maybe in the Savannah River after 2 or 3 AM. The chances for fog over the ocean would increase if winds with the land breeze are able to back more to the north. After any early morning fog along the Georgia coast Monday, relatively quiet marine conditions are expected through Thursday, with winds slowly veering from NE to S. SW winds will increase on Friday ahead of a cold front, then remain elevated through Saturday behind the front. Seas could briefly reach 6 ft beyond 20 nm Friday night into Saturday. && .EQUIPMENT... Temperature data at the KSAV ASOS are suspect. Parts are on order and will arrive next week. Use data with caution. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION... MARINE... EQUIPMENT...