491 FXUS65 KABQ 031553 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 853 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Global and hi-res CAM model trends continue to show a northerly shift in the subtropical moisture plume moving into NM today and tonight. Have nudged PoPs further north to match this trend toward the I-40 corridor and the ABQ metro this afternoon and evening. No big changes to overall message for this event, just better chances for light showers to reach further north toward the I-40 corridor this afternoon. Best chances for wetting rainfall remain where the orographic uplift is strongest through the Gila NF and Mogollon Rim and south-central mountains. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 206 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Moisture will be increasing over much of the southern half of New Mexico today and tomorrow. A band of precipitation is expected to develop this afternoon from the Gila Forest along US-60 through Socorro and possibly as far east as Santa Rosa and Clovis. Rainfall totals through the weekend are expected to be around 0.5 inches to 1 inch mainly from the Gila Forest to Socorro. Some moderate rainfall could reach the Rio Grande Valley and Albuquerque but there will be a gradient of rainfall amounts from north to south. With the moisture increasing temperatures will also increase supporting higher freezing levels so most of the precipitation should be rain. Rainfall should come to an end Monday morning as an upper level disturbance moves east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 206 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 A cold front was progressing rapidly into the eastern plains with a brief period of northeast wind gusts to around 35 mph before settling down. Guidance remains unconvinced about an east wind into the Santa Fe to Albuquerque areas despite developing a light surface easterly gradient this morning. A north wind may be more likely but did edit in a relatively light east wind in the grids below the Albuquerque Foothills and near the Santa Fe airport this morning. Models are still consistent with a rapidly increasing stream of subtropical moisture over the region along and south of I-40 today with forecast PWATs increasing to an impressive 0.8 of an inch, and remaining through Sunday. Top down saturation seems to occur pretty quickly today based on forecast soundings which corresponds to a rapid increase in PoPs. Rainfall rates are not expected to be heavy though so this may turn into a beneficial rain event with snow levels remaining above 10000 feet over the southern half of NM and lingering around 8500 feet in the northern mountains. That said, there is some better instability forecast along and west of the Continental Divide Sunday where the higher PoPs become focused. At this time, have not mentioned thunder in the weather grids but can't rule out an isolated storm. Today's highs will be 10-25 degrees cooler over the east and far southwest/south central portions of the CWA with little change elsewhere. Sunday's highs will be warmer across the east and 5-10 degrees above normal overall. Above normal temperatures expected tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 206 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Latest water vapor imagery shows a pretty long swath of mid/upper level moisture from the Pacific to over Arizona and New Mexico. Moisture should deepen through the day today supporting rainfall outlined above. This rainfall should be coming to an end Sunday night into Monday morning as the upper level jet weakens over the region and any disturbances in the flow have moved east. By Wednesday the synoptic models show another trough forming over the Great Basin and Four Corners. This allows for another increase in precipitation chances but this time temperatures will be colder supporting a mix of rain/snow depending upon snow levels. The trough looks to push across the Rockies Thursday into Friday but all of the models show differing solutions. What we do have some confidence in the forecast for is lowering snow levels through the week from Mon/Tue through Friday. We also think the trough whenever it decided to push across for the end of the week will bring a round of high winds and then snow in the mountains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 405 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 Cold front has moved through the ern plains and may make a brief push into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ as an east wind gusting to around 25kt between 12-15Z. Otherwise clouds lowering and thickening through 04/00Z with mts becoming obscd in MVFR cigs/vsbys in light rain and br mainly along and south of I-40 aft 03/21Z. Conditions spreading nwd of I-40 and west of I-25 aft 04/00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2022 A stream of subtropical moisture is still forecast to overspread much of southern and central NM along and south of I-40 today through Sunday. Most of the wetting precipitation will be in the form of rain with high snow levels forecast. Chances for precipitation diminish Monday but windy conditions resume along and west of the Continental Divide and along and east of the central mountain chain. An upper trough may approach NM from the west Tuesday/Wednesday bringing the possibility of precipitation to west facing slopes of the west and north as well as lower snow levels. Temperatures will trend cooler and drop to a few degrees below normal. There continues to be considerable forecast uncertainty by the middle of next week with run to run model consistency issues. With the exception of today over the eastern plains, temperatures will be near to above normal through Tuesday. Widespread poor ventilation today and Sunday improves to good to excellent for most areas Monday into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 37 55 36 / 0 20 40 20 Dulce........................... 51 30 50 30 / 10 20 40 30 Cuba............................ 48 35 50 35 / 10 30 50 30 Gallup.......................... 55 38 52 36 / 20 30 50 20 El Morro........................ 53 38 52 37 / 60 60 60 20 Grants.......................... 54 37 55 34 / 50 50 60 20 Quemado......................... 53 40 55 36 / 90 80 70 20 Magdalena....................... 54 42 55 41 / 80 90 60 10 Datil........................... 51 38 53 38 / 90 90 70 10 Reserve......................... 55 41 58 37 / 90 90 80 30 Glenwood........................ 56 46 59 47 / 90 90 80 40 Chama........................... 46 27 46 29 / 30 20 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 48 36 48 36 / 20 30 40 30 Pecos........................... 48 36 53 38 / 20 40 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 28 49 33 / 5 5 10 10 Red River....................... 45 29 46 28 / 10 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 46 30 47 30 / 10 10 20 5 Taos............................ 49 31 51 33 / 5 10 20 10 Mora............................ 51 34 53 36 / 10 20 10 10 Espanola........................ 51 36 52 37 / 10 20 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 48 38 51 38 / 20 40 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 37 53 36 / 20 40 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 43 55 44 / 60 70 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 42 54 41 / 60 70 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 41 55 40 / 60 70 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 42 54 41 / 50 60 40 20 Belen........................... 56 42 54 39 / 80 80 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 54 41 55 41 / 40 50 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 56 41 54 39 / 70 80 50 20 Corrales........................ 54 42 55 41 / 50 60 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 55 41 54 40 / 70 80 50 20 Placitas........................ 52 41 54 42 / 50 60 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 52 42 54 41 / 50 60 40 20 Socorro......................... 57 43 56 43 / 80 90 50 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 39 51 41 / 60 70 40 20 Tijeras......................... 50 40 53 40 / 60 70 40 20 Edgewood........................ 50 37 53 37 / 60 70 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 34 53 36 / 60 70 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 48 36 50 38 / 60 70 30 10 Mountainair..................... 52 39 53 39 / 80 90 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 55 41 55 41 / 80 90 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 59 44 56 46 / 80 80 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 54 40 55 44 / 70 60 30 20 Capulin......................... 44 31 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 46 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 47 33 56 32 / 0 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 36 55 40 / 10 30 10 5 Clayton......................... 46 36 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 44 34 58 38 / 5 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 38 61 45 / 20 40 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 39 62 46 / 40 60 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 40 64 47 / 20 50 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 38 61 46 / 30 50 5 0 Portales........................ 50 38 62 46 / 30 50 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 51 36 60 46 / 40 70 5 0 Roswell......................... 55 38 62 49 / 30 40 5 5 Picacho......................... 50 38 65 48 / 60 40 10 20 Elk............................. 51 38 64 46 / 40 40 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...99