916 FXUS64 KLIX 012341 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 541 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 Surface ridge continues to build in from the north while sliding east across the Ohio River Valley. This has kept temperatures on the cool side. This will continue tonight as decent radiational cooling commences. Will see a slight orientation change in lows tonight with the coolest temps in northeast portions of the CWA as that high moves east. Should see a slight uptick in mins as an upper level ridge centered over the southern Gulf of Mexico builds expands northward. This trend continues into Friday which will promote airmass moderation. Deterministic NBM highs came in with low to mid 70s across the CWA which falls in line with various guidance. The most appreciable change in sensible weather will be Friday night when overnight lows drastically increase in response to moisture surging northward and cloud cover increasing. We'll go from seeing 30s and 40s tonight to low 60s for those min temps. The other potential impact may be some fog. Guidance suggests lower visibilities will be possible as dewpoint quickly rise into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 A mid latitude trough will be tracking east across the Central and High Plains Friday, crossing the upper/mid Mississippi River Valley Friday night. As surface ridge north of the CWA slides east, southeasterly flow will return and bring moisture back to the area. As Saturday comes, the cold front associated with this system will be approaching the CWA during the afternoon hours. Glancing at model soundings, there with be a little elevated instability in place with the help of low level temps in the mid to upper 70s. Not expecting much in the way of thunder activity but could be a few thunderstorms in the mix as the front moves in. Coverage should no more than 50% with the highest rain chances in southwest Mississippi and slightly lower north of I-12 in LA and I-10 in MS. The higher rain chances shift southward (south of I-10). Slight chance showers will probably linger into Sunday as the cold front appears to stall and dissolve over the CWA due the lack of southward digging of the trough. The remainder of the forecast period, early next week, will be similar to Sunday. The upper ridge, still centered in the southern Gulf of Mexico, will again expand farther north. Since moisture really never gets flushed out, could still be looking at slight chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty on that potential because if the ridge builds enough to the north, it may provide too much subsidence for shower initiation. Unusually warm temps would exist in the setup as that ridge builds north with. Global models suggest highs will be topping out in the upper 70s to the low 80s. Record highs this time of year run around the low to mid 80s, so won't be too far off from that. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 VFR conditions expected overnight with generally light easterly winds expected. On Friday low status will begin to develop and move inland from the Gulf as winds shift to just south of east. This will impact GPT and eventually spread west and northwest with time. MVFR CIGs respectively, but as time progresses VIS may become an issue, especially toward the end of the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 Surface ridge currently building in from the north of the local area is quickly shifting east. Winds have already begun to rotate around to the east and are steadily subsiding as the pressure gradient weakens. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect but have replaced it in the open Gulf waters with an Exercise Caution headline through tonight. Southeasterly flow will persist until the next frontal boundary approaches the coastal waters late on Saturday afternoon/evening. The upper level trough driving this front south looks to remain quite far north, with the base of it not much farther south than Indiana/Ohio latitude. That means this front will really be losing steam as it reaches the local area. It will probably stall as it gets here with return flow quickly coming back. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 38 71 60 74 / 0 0 10 50 BTR 42 75 63 79 / 0 0 10 40 ASD 41 74 61 78 / 0 10 0 40 MSY 51 75 65 78 / 0 10 0 40 GPT 45 71 63 75 / 0 10 0 30 PQL 42 70 60 75 / 0 0 0 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RDF MARINE...ME