030 FXUS64 KJAN 221719 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 There were no major changes to the forecast and it will continue to remain on track throughout the period. Rain and drizzle conditions that were previously mentioned has cleared out, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions will remain through the day. /NP/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Today through tonight... Today: With the trough axis situated right along the MS River corridor & continued broad moist isentropic ascent, some light showers are ongoing this morning. For that reason, even with some dryness in the low levels & some trace precip being observed, added some mention of light rain & drizzle through mid-morning before clearing by midday. Broad area of cloudiness will spread more to the ESE through the day & clouds will thin out the NW of the Natchez Trace by mid-late aftn hours. Highs will be near normal in the low-mid 60s. Tonight: As isentropic subsidence moves in the wake of the dampening shortwave trough, quiet conditions are expected. 1025mb sfc high will remain situated just to the NE over the Appalachians with the N Gulf Coast region under dry NE sfc wind. Clouds will mostly clear out overnight, with more favorable rad cooling into mid 30s N of I-20 to low-mid 40s S of I-20. /DC/ Wednesday into next week... A cool start to the morning Wednesday will be followed by a seasonably warm afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 F. As the airmass begins to moisten some, dewpoints will rise into the 40s F which is likely to help maintain overnight lows Wednesday night into the upper 40s F south lower 40s F north. Some patchy fog is possible with the increase in surface moisture. A large upper low begins to close off from the base of a large upper trough over the central US Thursday into Friday as an east coast upper ridge translates quickly eastward as it amplifies and begins to move north of the low diving south across the central Plains states. Guidance has come into better agreement with this evolution over the last 24 hours and the consensus will result in rain chances increasing Thursday, and rain likely for most on Friday. In contrast to the common evolution of rain chances ending behind the frontal passage late Friday, rain chances could continue into the weekend. The upper low being closed and detached from the strongest westerlies will be slow to move east, thus allowing rain chances lingering underneath the upper low into Saturday. Storm total rainfall could be in the 1 to 3 inch range with the highest totals likely on Friday. A few localized higher amounts are possible where convective elements augment the widespread stratiform precipitation. Confidence on the positioning of a possible higher zone of rainfall is low with little cross-model or run to run consistency. As confidence increases nearer the event, an area for some risk of flooding could be delineated in HWO products. For now, will continue to monitor this possibility and expect the rainfall to be primarily soaking and beneficial. Most areas remain anomalously dry in the last 90 days with average rainfall departures of 2-6 inches across the area; about 50 percent of normal. (Since September 1st, Jackson is currently 3.73 inches behind the climatological average) Into later Sunday and early next week, dry and cool weather is likely following the period of precipitation. Temperatures will likely be near seasonal averages with highs in the 60s F and lows in the 40s F. /86/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 VFR conditions will remain throughout the period. Winds are out of the east-northeast are light with no obstructions to flight conditions. /NP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 41 69 52 / 10 0 0 20 Meridian 64 39 68 49 / 10 0 0 10 Vicksburg 64 39 69 51 / 10 0 0 30 Hattiesburg 66 44 71 54 / 10 0 0 10 Natchez 64 41 70 53 / 10 0 0 20 Greenville 62 37 65 50 / 10 0 0 40 Greenwood 62 38 67 50 / 20 0 0 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DC/LP/NP