437 FXUS64 KAMA 182013 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 213 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 20z WV satellite reveals an E-W oriented upper trough extending over S NV to OH with this feature slowly moving south today. At the surface, post-frontal airmass is in place with temperatures mainly in the 20s and dewpoints dropping into the single digits. Given the upslope northeasterly orientation of these winds, have had a few flurries in the far western Panhandles but the steady drying at the surface has prevented these from becoming widespread. Tonight, post frontal surface high become centered roughly over the Panhandles, with wind speeds decreasing as a result. While radiational cooling conditions are not perfect given expected sky cover, low level clouds look to give way to mid and upper level clouds, so moderating effect of sky cover will be suboptimal. This, in combination with the single digit dewpoints, suggests temperatures will be able to tumble into the teens. Tomorrow, as the upper trough finally shifts south of the area, winds will tend to become northerly once again. Thus, while skies should clear, temperatures will only rise into the mid 40s. With light winds and clear skies expected tomorrow night, temperatures will fall to around 20. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Going though next week, the majority of the long term forecast period should remain dry. Scant low and mid level moisture will result in not much precip through the middle of next week as perturbations in the mean H500 westerly move east across areas just south of the Texas Panhandle. A slight chance of a rain and/or snow shower may be possible on Thanksgiving Day. Latest 18/12Z model and numerical guidance shows some limited moisture in the wake of a cold front from the previous day moving through the Panhandles. The eastern Panhandles has the best chance for any precipitation at this time. High temperatures will slowly climb to around average by the middle of next week before airmass behind cold front drops temperatures to slightly below average by Thanksgiving Day. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 While abundant cloud cover is expected to continue, ceilings, now just above MVFR, should trend higher with time. Thus, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will tend to turn clockwise through the period, with AMA and DHT seeing initial easterly winds turn all the way to out of the north by the late morning hours Saturday. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 18 43 21 52 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 14 46 17 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 13 43 19 53 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 21 47 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 19 46 19 54 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 17 44 19 52 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 19 46 23 52 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 15 43 17 50 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 13 46 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 17 45 19 52 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 15 46 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 18 44 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 20 47 24 52 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 21 48 24 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...77