253 FXUS64 KLUB 100411 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1011 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Mid-level satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper closed low spinning over Idaho this afternoon with southwesterly flow aloft. The low clouds are quickly dissipating this afternoon from west to east across West Texas, which is allowing for temperatures to warm into the 70s across the forecast area. Winds are a bit breezy out of the south today with a 30 to 40 knot low level jet present just off the surface. Winds will continue to remain breezy this evening into early tomorrow morning as lee cyclogenesis develops in northeast CO and the low level jet picks up to around 40 to 50 knots. The southwesterly flow will continue aloft tonight as the upper low pushes east towards the Northern Plains by early tomorrow morning. This in turn will start to push the surface low northeast into NE and bring the Pacific front through the western portions of the South Plains and Southern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures tomorrow morning across these portions may dip a bit lower than the previous few nights into the mid 40s. Warm moist air will persist ahead of the Pacific front and west winds with the return of low level moisture and a low stratus deck for a few hours early tomorrow morning across the eastern South Plains and off the Caprock, similar to this morning. However, these low clouds should clear out quickly as the dry air behind the front pushes in from the west. In turn, this will push the moisture eastward and any chance for precipitation along the dryline tomorrow afternoon will be kept to our east in Central Texas and Oklahoma. A gradient of high temperatures will occur tomorrow with 60s across the South Plains and 70s off the Caprock. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 Thursday evening opens with a strong cold front slicing through the region ahead of markedly colder air. As of 2 PM, this front was already putting on quite a show in western Nebraska where temps ranged from 80F at McCook to only 28F a mere 130 miles north at Thedford. Fortunately, this cold air mass will modify as it deepens over the region on Veterans Day when we expect highs only in the 40s. The intersection of this front with a dryline just east of our Rolling Plains should keep deep convection shunted to our east through Thursday evening, so other than some blustery northeast winds and a light freeze in our NW counties by early Friday morning, the real story will be much colder lows by Friday night as the surface high sets up over the South Plains. We continue to favor the colder MOS blends over the NBM for highs Fri and especially lows Fri night. Some mid-level clouds accompanying an upper trough's passage on Fri may serve to keep highs even cooler in some spots, but overall these clouds will be on the decline Friday night as subsidence deepens. Mostly zonal flow this weekend will allow the chilly surface ridge to depart late Saturday ahead of milder, but still very dry southerly flow. Moist isentropic ascent should improve beginning late Sunday into Monday in advance of a compact and weak closed low progged to track across the South Plains Monday afternoon. Global guidance agrees in this wave generally filling as it reaches our area, so enhanced ascent and further cooling of the column appear more limited. However, enough wet bulbing considerations and sufficiently cold temps, especially over the northern half of our CWA would support a light wintry mix at times before temps moderate by midday. Enough model spread remains in the track and timing of this low still five days out, so we won't delve into the details too much at this time. The larger picture thereafter still favors a +PNA setup favorable for below normal temps as additional cP air drains south through the Great Plains. Various vort lobes and troughs dropping down the Pacific coast could serve to bring some wintry precip chances to the region by late week as they curl across the Desert SW, although this falls beyond our scope of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 MVFR CIGS are expected to develop over the central South Plains early Thursday morning primarily affecting the KLBB and KPVW terminals. These CIGS will clear out after daybreak as a cold front moves through and shifts winds to the west/northwest. A second cold front is then anticipated to move through late Thursday or early Friday shifting winds to the north. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...01