713 FXUS62 KILM 091507 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1007 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds, large surf, and some coastal flooding will continue for the next few days as Tropical Storm Nicole moves westward toward Florida tonight. Showers will develop late Thursday through Friday as a weakening Nicole moves northward across Georgia and the interior portions of the Carolinas. A cold front Saturday will usher in dry and colder air for start of next week. && .UPDATE... The morning weather balloon from Morehead City showed a strong subsidence inversion between 5500 and 7000 feet AGL. Atlantic moisture collecting along the base of this inversion is showing up as high stratocumulus clouds moving quickly westward across the area. Radar shows patchy sprinkles and light showers offshore, but with the cloud layer remaining thin through the afternoon the odds of measurable rain inland today remains very low. Today's wind speed forecasts have been adjusted higher with this update based on observations and model progs showing 30-35 knot winds in 1000-2000 foot AGL layer which should get mixed down to the surface. We've already measured a 34 knot gust here at ILM with 29 knots just down the coast at North Myrtle Beach. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: High pressure centered to the north will weaken as TS Nicole heads west toward the east-central FL coast. A strong pressure gradient will continue over the Cape Fear, Pee Dee and Grand Strand leading to breezy conditions with gusts up to 40 mph, highest mainly near the coast. A mix of low clouds and high clouds will make for a generally cloudy day and could even see a few showers scraping the coastal areas. Highs should be near normal for this time of year, mainly upper 60s to near 70. Tonight: Much of the same weather expected although a coastal trough and increasing Atlantic moisture should lead to more showers near the coast late, especially in SC. Lows mainly ranging from the mid 50s well inland to lower to mid 60s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Evolution and track of Tropical Storm Nicole will play big role in the forecast for Thursday through Friday. Wedge all but gone start of Thursday as center of parent high pressure moves further east into the North Atlantic and mid-upper ridge over NC weakens. Onshore flow develops as TC Nicole moves across Florida on Thursday. This will aid in warming temps and increasing dewpoints, with high temps in the low to mid 70s. PWAT values around 1.4" Thursday morning increases to near 2" by evening hours as deep moisture advects in from the south- southeast associated with the tropical system. Rain increases from south to north during the day of light to moderate intensity, with high pops forecasted by Thursday afternoon for most of the area. Thursday night, Nicole is forecasted to be moving north into GA, with large precipitation shield north of the system continuing rain chances through the night. Weather Friday will be determine by track and evolution of Nicole as it moves quickly up the East Coast. Current forecast has the tropical cyclone moving across the Carolinas during the day Friday west of the ILM CWA, while weakening and beginning extratropical transition. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be on the west side of the system as it moves up the coast, which combined with the westward shift of the track has decreased our storm total QPF to 1- 2", with higher amounts possible especially in southern counties. While still welcome, not sure forecasted rain will do much for ongoing dry conditions. Winds however will be strongest on the east side of the system as it tracks northward. Not expecting tropical storm force winds Friday, but will be breezy and could see occasional gusts of 30-40 mph Friday afternoon and evening particularly well inland and along the coast. Isolated tornadoes will also be a threat Thursday night into Friday as the system tracks west of ILM. Friday will be quite warm and muggy, with highs approaching 80F due to strong WAA despite on and off rain and cloudy skies. Conditions will improve quickly Friday evening, with rain ending and winds decreasing as Nicole rapidly exits to the north and begins merging with an approaching baroclinic system. Skies clearing and low temps drop to around 60F by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While cooler than Friday, temps Saturday will still be above normal as downslope flow develops behind exiting system and in front of approaching cold front. Upper trough moving across the Midwest will help push cold front across the area Saturday night, trailing from surface low well to the northeast. May see some clouds with the front, but will not be enough time for moisture recovery for any precipitation chances. High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday through Monday night. The upper trough moving across to the north on Sunday is weaker than the models were showing previously, and as such the CAA behind the front into early next week isn't showing quite as strong. Will monitor trends in subsequent model runs, as this will determine our chances for near freezing temps Monday and Tuesday morning. Still forecasting a cooling trend with dry weather Sunday and Monday. An upper vort max splits from parent trough in the Northwest and digs across Texas Monday, and pressure falls ahead of it could aid development of a surface low that may move across the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF period. However, some low-level moisture could lead to MVFR cigs at times, especially for coastal terminals today and then all terminal tonight. Otherwise, main concern is the gusty NE winds to around 25 kt at times, especially during the daytime. Also, some showers could affect coastal areas, especially late tonight. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR during the daytime periods the remainder of the week, with MVFR/IFR possible in early morning low clouds or fog. Rain chances rise on Thursday and persist into Friday. A few heavy squalls possible Thursday night into Friday associated with Nicole. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Strong NE winds gusting up to near 40 kt and seas up to 10-12 feet will produce dangerous marine conditions, especially for small craft. Gale Warnings continue for all zones. Thursday through Friday Night...Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through end of the week through early Saturday, mainly in the form of elevated seas. Winds weaken slightly early Thursday as high pressure to the north moves further into the north Atlantic and pressure gradient loosens a bit. Onshore winds will still be quite breezy Thursday, with gusts to 30kts, as tropical cyclone Nicole moves across FL. As Nicole tracks west of the area, inland across the Carolinas, on Friday winds turn southerly early Friday with gusts to 30-34kts during the day. Seas remain elevated around 8- 11 ft Thursday through Friday evening as a 9-11 sec ESE swell. Moderate rain will move into the area from the south during the day Thursday and continue through Friday evening with chance for thunderstorms and possibly isolated waterspouts. Saturday through Sunday...Winds will weaken Friday night as Nicole exits quickly to the northeast, and offshore flow develops by Saturday morning. Likewise seas will be lowering during the night, with seas 4-8 ft forecasted for Saturday morning. Could see seas lower to below 6 feet across the coastal waters later in the day Saturday. A cold front will move across the waters Saturday night with breezy northerly winds developing for Sunday, though currently below advisory conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Raised a long-fused High Surf Advisory, the headline going through Saturday. See no reason that with such a pinched gradient 6 ft waves will be hard to come by through then, though admittedly nearly all of our beach contacts are done for the season. Left Brunswick County out given the wave shadowing in the NE flow, perhaps later in the week the wind will veer enough that headline may be needed there, hinging in no small part to the still uncertain track of Nicole. Some beach erosion will be possible as a result of the rough surf. Minor coastal flooding expected through late week, especially during the morning high tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for tomorrow morning along the entire coast, although may be lowering the tide levels with the next forecast based on the latest guidance. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...