915 FXUS62 KILM 062351 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 651 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will maintain humid onshore winds and above normal temperatures through Monday. Low pressure over or near the Bahamas early to mid week should shift northward later in the week, likely bringing some significant marine and coastal impacts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Next 24 hours will feature the quietest wx overall of the week as the local area remains under the influence of sfc high pressure and associated dry conditions. Showers have struggled to develop over weather areas today, and any activity near the edges of the CWA will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Main concern tonight is still patchy to areas of fog, dense at times, as winds diminish and dewpoint depressions are quite small...best chances are inland where winds are lighter. Low temps average around 60. Another pleasant day then for Monday with NE flow and temps about 10 degrees above normal for early November...highs in the lwr 80s most spots. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An interesting weather week is in store as low pressure located north of Puerto Rico will slowly intensify into a tropical, subtropical, or extratropical storm and shift northward before being shunted to the west and southwest later in the week. A 500-millibar high-pressure axis will be along a line from northeast Mexico off the Virginia Capes. This high pressure will build eastward and continue into Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will push across the Carolinas Monday night, and high pressure will build from New England into southern Alabama. This strong high pressure will force the low pressure center to turn west to the southwest toward the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday. The impact will be a cooler and drier northeast flow, bringing the dew-points into the upper 30s inland late Tuesday and very dry air aloft with precipitable waters less than 0.5". Lows Monday night will be in the mid to the upper 50s and near 60 at the beaches. On Tuesday night, the lows will drop into the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s at the beaches. Tuesday highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The evolution and path of the low north of Puerto Rico will be steered by the high pressure to the north and a strong shortwave that will be moving across the country. The global models generally agree with the 500 mb low over southern Oregon to Northwest Nevada at 12 UTC Wednesday, and by Thursday evening, the 500 mb low will lift into the upper plains. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS. The result is the surface low over Florida begins to lift northward, and at 00 UTC Friday, the ECMWF surface low is slightly farther west and north of the GFS. As the shortwave lifts into the Great Lakes, the ECMWF shows the low- pressure area moving along the southeast U.S. coast, and by Saturday morning, the low is well north of the area. The GFS shows the low moving off the northeast Florida coast and remaining just offshore of the Carolinas. There is a ~300-mile difference between the models, so the system's location, intensity, and speed uncertainty are high. With high pressure giving way to low pressure to its south, temperatures will warm up, with Friday being the warmest. Showers are expected to move onshore late Wednesday night and increase over the forecast area by Thursday. There will be a chance of showers from Thursday into Friday. Rainfall amounts are still uncertain based on the storm's track and its interaction with the dry air. Conditions are expected to clear Saturday into Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will continue into tonight before the threat of fog during the early morning hours. Winds will continue to calm over the next several hours paired with low dewpoint depressions overnight, particularly at KLBT/KFLO where conditions could reach IFR or below. Confidence on fog for KMYR/KCRE/KILM is lower due to higher winds and some scattered clouds around 4kft, but it could be possible. VFR with NE winds tomorrow. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR during the daytime periods this week, with MVFR/IFR possible in early morning low clouds or fog. Rain chances remain low early to mid week, and increase into Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Monday: Sub-SCA conditions tonight into daytime Monday with sfc high pressure leading to 10-15 kt NE flow over the waters. Seas steady at 3-5 ft, mainly consisting of 8-9 sec ESE swell. Monday Night through Friday: Conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate Monday night, with the pressure gradient beginning to tighten as high pressure to the north builds southward and the low pressure off the coast of Florida shifts northward and then westward. Small craft conditions are possible late Monday night and are expected to reach Gale conditions on Tuesday into Wednesday. Sea heights are expected to increase from 5-6 feet on Monday night to 10-12 feet by Tuesday afternoon, and seas will range from 8 to 10 feet Thursday into Friday. Still, with the path and speed of the low pressure center over or near the coastal waters, wave heights could easily be higher than the current forecast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong northeast to east winds are expected for the middle portion of the week which will be occurring during the full moon. Thus, minor coastal flooding will be possible, mainly during the morning high tides. Also, life-threatening surf conditions and beach erosion will also be possible, especially along east- facing beaches. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...LEW MARINE...MAS/RH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM