080 FXUS63 KGLD 062113 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 213 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Morning) Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 Zonal flow is dominating the plains currently with mid clouds streaming eastward just north of the area. At the surface a high pressure system was located over the Nebraska Panhandle where a cold front is located. For the rest of the the day clear to partly cloudy skies will persist with highs in the 50s to low 60s across the area and lighter winds. Overnight winds will slower become ESE and remain light. High clouds will move in from the SW as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s over the east and low 30s over the west. Moisture advection increases from the SE around sunrise which looks to lead to low stratus developing and perhaps some fog. The HREF, HRRR and CONSHORT are aggressive with the magnitude of the fog with dense fog developing. My confidence in fog isn't overall the highest currently as winds are expected to be fairly breezy over the western part of the area which typically doens't support fog, but perhaps with amount of moisture advection this can be realized. The surface high as mentioned above looks to nose its way into eastern portion of the area as well where the winds will be lighter so did nudge the patchy fog in the forecast a bit more to the east than what guidance is showing to account for this. I am also a bit skeptical on the fog formation due to the overall dry conditions which may limit the magnitude of the fog as well. Overall, patchy fog has been added into the forecast. Monday, guidance does actually show fog/stratus all day which would limit how warm it actually does get so went with a blend of ConShort/CONSMOS for highs. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area but may be cooler depending if the stratus does hold on all and the magnitude. The prolonged cloud cover would also limit the wind gust potential, sustained winds would still be breezy around 15-20 knots but would essentially eliminate any 30+ knot gusts where the cloud cover holds. Monday night and into Tuesday, guidance shows stratus and fog potential again developing over the eastern portion of the area which would keep low temperatures warmer int he upper 40s to low 50s with western areas a bit cooler in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 The extended period looks to be more active as a strong trough develops over the SW CONUS. A rather dynamic pattern looks to develop starting Tuesday. Moisture advection looks to be rather strong on Tuesday with higher dew points from the Gulf of Mexico moving into the area. Will need to keep an eye out for fog/stratus potential Tuesday morning as well but with the breezy winds expected overall confidence in being able to pin point any fog development at this time is low so will not be introducing into the forecast. Breezy to gusty winds look to develop during the day with gusts up to 40 mph at times along with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the area. A shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the eastern portion of the area during the late afternoon/evening hours, however due to lack of obvious forcing will leave the forecast dry. Into mid week, gusty to windy conditions look to continue across the area as the upper level trough begins to undergo cyclogenesis. The overall track of the system remains in question as the ECMWF develops the low over the Front Range and brings it to the north of the area which is a favorable track for strong winds and dry conditions. The GFS develops the low over the CWA which may lead to the development of showers and storms, if this does verify then couldnt rule out the potential for severe storms to occur due to the moisture in place and forecast soundings suggesting strong 0-6km shear. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will need to be watch Tuesday and Wednesday across at least east Colorado as gusty to windy conditions look to develop during the afternoon and the potential for additional drying due to the southwesterly winds. RH values are currently forecasted in the upper teens; but these may change based on the track of the system. Wednesday night a strong cold front associated with the system swings through the area causing a significant change to the temperatures with temperatures falling throughout the day Thursday. High temperatures Thursday range from the low 40s to mid 60s with possibly some high temperatures being set at midnight. Cool temperatures will then continue into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 VFR conditions and winds around 10 knots will be the theme for the duration of the TAF period. Winds throughout the period will become ESE overnight, allowing moisture advection to increase across the area. Some fog/ low stratus is expected to develop and impact the KGLD terminal. Uncertainty exists with the magnitude of aviation impacts due to ceiling/visibility so opted to go with high end MVFR ceiling/visibility for this TAF period. There is some potential it may reach the KMCK terminal, but confidence is very low in this occurrence to include at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg