129 FXUS63 KTOP 062024 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 224 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Key Points: - Dry and seasonal through Monday, chance of rain Tuesday - Warm and windy Wednesday and Thursday - Strong system brings precip and colder air late week Water Vapor satellite this afternoon show a zonal to slight southwest flow aloft across the central Plains with an upstream mid level low off the British Columbia coast at 19Z. At the surface, high pressure was building southward from the northern high Plains with north to northeast winds across the cwa. Not much in the way of any cold advection as temperatures have risen into the low to mid 60s across northeast Kansas. Tonight winds will decrease this evening as the high builds into northern Kansas, then as it moves off to the east late tonight winds will become easterly and increase to around 10 mph by sunrise. Lows tonight will cool into the 30s. Monday temperatures will just be a few degrees cooler than today with easterly winds off the surface high. Monday night return flow starts late in the night and have scaled back precipitation chances as moisture will be lacking. Better chances will be Tuesday morning when moisture increases along with isentropic lift over the warm front forecast across south central Kansas Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday will warm back into the mid and upper 60s as the warm front lifts north of the Kansas border by afternoon. Ensembles and deterministic models suggest a tightening pressure gradient across the Plains Tuesday with a deepening surface low in the lee of the Rockies. Strongest winds (Advisory level) are expected Wednesday and Thursday as the surface cyclone deepens as the mid level trough moves across the Rockies. There are still differences with the timing of the cold front and the cold advection behind the front, so Thursday's temperatures are likely to be on the warm side of the guidance spread in the 70s. Wednesday is still shaping up to be the warmest day with highs firmly in the 70s. There may be a brief period of mixed precipitation Thursday night. Cold temperatures are expected for Friday through Sunday with highs below normal in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1103 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north around 10kts at the start of the forecast to veer to the northeast by 00Z and decrease to less than 10kts. Winds become east by 11Z and increase to near 10kts by 15Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53