207 FXUS61 KAKQ 061951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure stays off the New England coast as a cold front tries to approach from the west through tonight. Well above normal temperatures are expected through Monday ahead of that weakening cold front. Behind this front, another area of high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England Monday night into Wednesday, while low pressure drifts toward the Florida coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EST Sunday... Unseasonably warm again this morning/today as sfc hi pres remains off the coast and S winds avg 10 mph or less. Spotty SHRAs continue to lift NNE of the FA attm...might be a stray SHRA far WNW through this afternoon...OTW PoPs AOB 10%. Avgg out partly sunny central/E and mostly cloudy W w/ highs from the u70s/around 80F far WNW and at the coast...l80s elsw. There is a shot at records highs this afternoon (SEE Climate section below) && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1000 AM EST Sunday... Partly-mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm again tonight w/ lows mainly in the l60s. The cold front will finally make progress across the area on Monday as very strong high pressure builds SE from central Canada. The front moves through Monday morning and should be offshore by mid afternoon. Recent hi-res guidance shows marginally more moisture along and ahead of the front than previous runs so have introduced slight chance PoPs to account for any spotty showers that accompany the front. High temperatures will rise well above normal again with contributions from downslope flow/compressional warming as high pressure builds into the region. More cloud cover and spotty showers would argue we won't be quite as warm as today but stuck close to the MOS guidance that has much of the area into the upper 70s and low 80s once again. We could see record high temps in spots on Monday as most records are only in the upper 70s. Much cooler and drier air filters in Monday night with low temps falling back toward seasonal norms, mid 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Cooler and breezy on Tuesday as 1040+mb high pressure ridges southward into the region and low pressure develops off the FL Atlantic coast. High temps will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s despite clear skies. Winds could gust 20-25mph inland and as high as 30-40mph near the coast. Dry and chilly Tuesday night with lows in the upper 30s NW to the low 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EST Sunday... Increasingly unsettled late in the week/Sat. Sfc hi pres will be retreating to the E Wed night-Thu as lo pres tracks INVOF FL and a storm system develops INVOF central Rockies/wrn Plains. Staying dry Wed night-Thu...though clouds will likely begin to arrive from the S (by late Thu). Moisture is expected to spread N into the mid-Atlantic states Thu night-Fri ahead of a strong cold moving E through the MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys (remnant lo pres may track NE INVOF the SE coast toward the VA Capes into Fri night). Have nudged PoPs up for Fri/Fri night...timing the arrival/the departure of any rain still problematic this far out...but does appear that the FA will be poised to receive beneficial rainfall (locally heavy??). Cold front (and any remnant lo pres) will be pushing off the coast Sat (maybe late) then winds become gusty from the NNW. Much cooler/dry wx Sun. Lows Wed night in the l-m40s inland...l-m50s at the coast. Highs Thu from the m60s NW to the l70s SE. Lows Thu night from the l50s N and W to the u50s-around 60F SE. Highs Fri from the m-u60s W to the l-m70s E. Lows Fri night mainly from the m50s-around 60F. Highs Sat in the 60s...l70s far SE VA-coastal NE NC. Highs Sun from around 50F N and NW to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1155 AM EDT Sunday... Other than possible patchy ST/FG (late) tonight...VFR conditions expected through the 18Z/06 TAF forecast period. Sfc hi pres to remain off the coast as a weakening cold front approaches from the WNW. Ahead of/accompanying the front Mon morning will be BKN mainly mid level clouds w/ only a very lo PROB for SHRAs. Winds remaining mainly S this afternoon-early Mon morning...generally 5-15 kt. Winds shifting to NNW Mon afternoon...then NE and increasing into Tue (highest at the coast). OTW...VFR conditions will continue Mon afternoon through Thu. Increasing clouds and PoPs by Fri. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean and extends westward over the East Coast. This is giving us a southerly wind around 10 kt this afternoon. The high over the Atlantic will moves farther east while the leading edge of a strong area of high pressure builds in from the west tomorrow. This will result in variable winds early Monday less than 5 kt, then N-NW wind at 10-15 kt late Monday as the high starts builds into the region. The high pressure is expected to strengthen as the center moves east along the U.S./Canada border, and be ~1042 mb over eastern Ontario and western Quebec Tuesday afternoon. At the same time, a low pressure will likely be strengthening east of the Bahamas and track west towards the Florida east coast. This will result in a decently strong pressure gradient over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday. N winds will be increasing Monday night into Tuesday. Winds late Monday night and Tuesday morning are forecasted to be N 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. Some models are indicating a slight chance for brief gusts up to 35 kt over the southern Chesapeake Bay during this time. Although, held off expanding the Gale Watch into the bay. Gale Watch remains in effect for Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Cape Charles, including the Currituck Sound, for late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon with gusts 35-40 kt. The center of high pressure will likely continue to move east over southern Quebec and northern New England Tuesday night. As it moves farther east, winds will become NE by late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will slightly decrease over the bay and VA tidal rivers to ~20 kt with gusts ~25 kt by Tuesday evening, but remain 25-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt over ocean coastal waters. High pressure north of the area will be weakening and moving east over the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday as a potential tropical cyclone approaches the east coast of Florida. Breezy ENE winds at 15-25 kt will continue local waters. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to move over the Florida peninsula Thursday as the high pressure moves well offshore. That will allow for winds across the area to come down and be ENE-E 10-15 kt. Seas/Waves will quickly increase during the time, peaking Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Seas are likely to build to to 10-12 ft south of Cape Henry and 7-9 ft north, with waves of 3-5 ft in the Bay (5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Seas are expected to fall by Wednesday afternoon, but remain elevated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... A period of increasing tidal anomalies will likely result in coastal flood issues across the region Tue-Thu (mainly for Hampton Roads including the lower Bay/lower James as well as locations along the coast from Northampton Co VA to Currituck NC). The current TWL forecast has minor flood thresholds being reached by the Tue morning high tide cycle across Hampton Roads/SE VA/NE NC at the coast. With strong NE winds continuing, along with rather high astronomical tides, expect Wed morning's high tide cycle to be similar to or slightly higher than Tue. At this time however, this still looks to primarily be a minor flood event with possibly some localized moderate flooding in a few spots from Va Beach to Corolla. Therefore, no Coastal Flood Watches will be issued at this time. For places farther N along the coast and across the mid and upper Ches Bay, the pattern is less favorable for flooding, and portions of the mid/upper Bay are actually expected to see negative tidal departures Tue- Wed given the strong NNE winds. It remains uncertain how things evolve by Thu, if water gets trapped in the Bay with winds gradually diminishing then some minor flooding could make its way farther N up the Bay. Low pressure is forecast to move NNE from FL up the coast late in the week into next weekend. Depending on track, this could lead to additional coastal flood issues but is beyond the forecast period and highly uncertain. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures: Sunday Nov 6th Monday Nov 7th: Richmond: 81 (1975) 79 (1978) Norfolk: 85 (2003) 78 (1975) Salisbury: 81 (1961) 78 (1938) Elizabeth City: 83 (2018) 81 (1938) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ633-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...CP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...