734 FXUS63 KGRR 061812 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 112 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday) Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 - Breezy Today; Tranquil Weather into Mid Week One more day with gusty winds to get through, but not as bad as Saturday. After a reprieve in the wind gusts into early morning, there will be a resurgence in 925mb winds of 30-40 kts during the late morning into afternoon, which Bufkit mixing heights reveal we should be able to tap. The highest gusts will likely be along the lakeshore north of MKG where some sfc gusts could reach the 35-40 kt (over 40 mph) at times. Most inland locations should have gusts in the 30-40 mph range, so that is lower than Saturday for sure but still breezy. Winds will greatly tail off toward sunset and beyond. Monday looks much less breezy with 10-20 mph expected. There is good model agreement on dry conditions, seasonable temperatures, and a fair amount of sun for Monday and Tuesday as upper ridging dominates the Great Lakes during that time. Low level warm air advection increases markedly for Wednesday and Thursday with 850mb temperatures rising into the 12C-15C range. With deep southwest synoptic scale flow in place by Thursday, we should be able to mix down dry adiabatically from about 900mb and boost highs back to around 70 away from the lake. Aside from something climatologically extreme happening later this month, that should be the last day we'll reach 70 anywhere for quite some time. - Turning Breezy Again Late Week, With Some Rain Showers An upper low approaching the Pacific NW at this time is slated to move into the Upper Midwest by late in the week. Given its trajectory over the Rockies midweek, lee cyclogenesis is forecast by medium range guidance and a deepening low is expected to move toward Minnesota by Thursday before occluding. This type of storm track would not give our region significant rainfall, but it would get us into the warm sector and provide a period of gusty winds especially Thursday into Friday. A cold front will probably sweep through the state sometime Friday afternoon or evening. Even five days out, forecast confidence is pretty good on FROPA timing. - Colder Air and Lake Effect Snow Showers Arrive This Weekend There is really little doubt that cold air advection behind this front will be sufficient enough for lake effect snow shower generation Saturday into Sunday. GFS ensemble spread on 850mb temperatures is not large when looking at the 25th-75th percentiles this coming weekend. At least at this long range, low level moisture looks pretty solid off the GFS/ECMWF/GEM, so the main question may be wind direction which is certainly in flux this far out. A general transition from W/WNW/NW flow is the early indication over the course of the weekend. Some accumulating snow is favored by most ensemble members for various locations mainly near and west of US 131, but this is too far out to talk specifics and precise locations. That said, this coming weekend will be the first time this season that any sort of travel impacts could potentially occur due to winter weather. The ensemble guidance favors temperatures to be below normal starting this upcoming weekend and likely several days beyond that. This would equate to highs mainly in the 30s for many locations. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 Main concern aviation wise the next 24 hour will be the wind for the remainder of the afternoon. South to southwest winds of 15-30 knots will be common for the remainder of the afternoon. We should see winds settle after 22z-23z into more of a 10-20 knot range. MKG may continue to be gustier all night though given its proximity to Lake Michigan with a wind off the lake. Otherwise, we are expecting mainly clear skies through the TAF period with no restrictions to visibility. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 High wave action persists today with renewed wind gusts hovering near gales. These higher winds will subside toward dark, but a northwesterly wind shift on Monday will keep elevated waves of 3 to 6 ft going even as winds subside below 25 kts during the afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>847. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ848-849. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Hoving