539 FXUS61 KBGM 061747 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1247 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will cause clouds and spotty showers today, with a few thunderstorms possible, but much of the time it will be dry. The weakening cold front will cross the region tonight into Monday morning, followed by dry high pressure taking back over through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Most of the area is briefly drying out this afternoon and we're even enjoying a few breaks of sunshine, with water vapor imagery showing a dry slot working in. However, also visible in water vapor is another weak ripple in our broad southwest flow, which will provide some weak dynamical support for additional shower activity through the afternoon as a weak cold front slowly moving into western NY at this time tracks through. Weak instability, especially across our northern areas, may allow for a few rumbles of thunder with this next round of scattered showers, and perhaps a strong, but sub- severe wind gust or two (winds aloft will be diminishing over time). We're lacking significant upper level support, and most of the region will be on the wrong side of the jet streak to our northwest. Otherwise warm and breezy conditions continue today. Many spots are already rising into the lower 70s, slightly above previous forecasts as we have had more sunshine than expected west of I-81. So, afternoon highs have been bumped up slightly with highs even nearing the 80F mark not out of the question in some of the valleys and urban spots west of I-81. Otherwise, expect highs to largely range in the lower to mid 70s. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25mph will be possible through the afternoon, especially across the higher terrain areas of the Finger Lakes. Winds will shift to the west and southwest behind the front tonight, with showers ending before dawn Monday morning. High temperatures Monday will run about 10-15 degrees cooler than today in Central NY, and 5-10 degrees cooler in NE PA, but will still be well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong high pressure will continue building into the region Monday night and Tuesday then remain near or over the area through Wednesday. This should result in a mostly sunny/ clear most of next week. While the airmass will be cooler with this high pressure system it won't be abnormally cold for this time of the year. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday should still make it into the upper 40's and 50's for most of the region. Some northwesterly winds should keep temperatures from falling much lower than the mid to upper 30's. However, a fairly strong signal on model bufkit guidance for an inversion Wednesday morning. Radiational cooling is likely given clear skies and light winds. With this mind adjusted temperatures in valleys downward Wednesday morning and some locations getting down into the 20's. High pressure will still have enough influence through Thursday to continue the mostly sunny/clear pattern. Although with the high starting to shift offshore warmer air will start to advect into the region. A look at modeled boundary layer temperatures would indicate quite a few locations are back well into the 60's for highs. Lows would be warmer Thursday morning only in the lower 30's thanks to the southerly winds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast uncertainty still increases past Thursday with two potential weather makers. The first is a stronger cold front moving across the central and eastern portions of the country which is modeled to develop a blizzard over the northern plains. Our second weather maker is a low pressure system with deep tropical moisture modeled to develop around the southeast United States. The majority of ensemble guidance take the low pressure system northward up the east coast Friday and Saturday and then sweep the cold front through behind it. A period of heavy rainfall is not out of the question given the deeper moisture with the highest chances Friday night. The good news though is the cold front while strong looks progressive potentially limiting the duration of any heavier rainfall. Behind the front much colder air is likely to be ushered in. This airmass has trended deeper and colder compared to yesterday. This is likely due to a strong -EPO modeled and that the MJO is moving out of phase 6 which favors a east coast ridge and toward phases 7 and 8 which tend to favor colder weather this time of year. West and northwest flow behind the front coupled with large temperature differences from lake Ontario and the air may promote lake effect rain and snow showers as well by late Saturday. Temperatures are more tricky. Increasing clouds and southerly winds should not result in much of a drop Thursday night only into the upper 40's on average. The last unseasonably warm day looks to be Friday with continued warm air advection getting highs into the 60's. Based on current timing, temperatures would not fall much or even rise Friday night ahead of the front but then fall on Saturday behind it. A small change with the frontal timing could have a major effect on the actual temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most terminals are rising to VFR this afternoon with some more breaks in the clouds. However, MVFR ceilings linger at AVP, and should return to BGM again over the next couple of hours as clouds fill back in. Another round of scattered showers is expected into the late afternoon as a weakening cold front moves through, with some rumbles of thunder not out of the question. A few showers may linger into the first half of the night, then expect clearing skies from west to east as drier air works in behind the front. Breezy conditions continue this afternoon, with southerly winds at around 10 to 15kts gusting as high as 20 to 25kts. Winds fall back slightly into the night, but then turn gusty again into Monday while gradually shifting to the west/northwest. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Dry high pressure builds back in and takes charge with VFR conditions. Friday...Mainly VFR, though brief restrictions are possible as showers move back in later in the day. && .CLIMATE... Record warm minimum temperatures were set at Scranton (63), Binghamton (57) and Syracuse (63) for 11/5. Here are the previous marks for comparison. Syracuse 57 (1948) Binghamton 56 (2015) Scranton 61 (1938) On the calendar day 11/6 the warmest minimum temperature values are forecast to be set at all three climate sites. Syracuse forecast: 61, current record 55 (1912) Binghamton forecast: 62 current record 53 (2015) Scranton forecast: 63 current record 60 (1938) However, high temperatures are forecast near to a few degrees shy of record values on 11/6 for Syracuse-Binghamton, and several degrees short at Scranton. Syracuse forecast: 74, current record 75 (1948) Binghamton forecast: 69, current record 70 (2005) Scranton forecast: 72, current record 77 (2015) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/MPH NEAR TERM...HLC/MPH SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...HLC CLIMATE...