833 FXUS61 KAKQ 061659 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1159 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure stays off the New England coast as a cold front tries to approach from the west through tonight. Well above normal temperatures are expected through Monday ahead of that weakening cold front. Behind this front, another area of high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into New England Monday night into Wednesday, while low pressure drifts toward the Florida coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EST Sunday... Unseasonably warm again this morning/today as sfc hi pres remains off the coast and S winds avg 10 mph or less. Spotty SHRAs continue to lift NNE of the FA attm...might be a stray SHRA far WNW through this afternoon...OTW PoPs AOB 10%. Avgg out partly sunny central/E and mostly cloudy W w/ highs from the u70s/around 80F far WNW and at the coast...l80s elsw. There is a shot at records highs this afternoon (SEE Climate section below) && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EST Sunday... Partly-mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm again tonight w/ lows mainly in the l60s. The cold front will finally make progress across the area on Monday as very strong high pressure builds SE from central Canada. The front moves through Monday morning and should be offshore by mid afternoon. Recent hi-res guidance shows marginally more moisture along and ahead of the front than previous runs so have introduced slight chance PoPs to account for any spotty showers that accompany the front. High temperatures will rise well above normal again with contributions from downslope flow/compressional warming as high pressure builds into the region. More cloud cover and spotty showers would argue we won't be quite as warm as today but stuck close to the MOS guidance that has much of the area into the upper 70s and low 80s once again. We could see record high temps in spots on Monday as most records are only in the upper 70s. Much cooler and drier air filters in Monday night with low temps falling back toward seasonal norms, mid 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Cooler and breezy on Tuesday as 1040+mb high pressure ridges southward into the region and low pressure develops off the FL Atlantic coast. High temps will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s despite clear skies. Winds could gust 20-25mph inland and as high as 30-40mph near the coast. Dry and chilly Tuesday night with lows in the upper 30s NW to the low 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Sunday... Continued breezy on Wednesday, especially along the southern coastal counties, as the pressure gradient remains rather steep between high pressure to the north and low pressure near the Bahamas. Latest guidance continues to slow the progression of low pressure/deeper moisture into the region with high pressure keeping tropical moisture well south of the region Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture finally begins to spread northward on Friday as high pressure moves away to the east. Given continued run-to-run inconsistencies, will limit PoPs late week to aob 50% but it is looking increasingly likely that Friday into Saturday could be quite wet as low pressure moves northward along the coast. Guidance is unclear whether this low will be tropical or subtropical in nature but NHC is monitoring the system for development over the coming days. High temps on Wednesday will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s with a few mid 60s for SE VA and NE NC. Not as cold Wednesday night with lows ranging from the low 40s NW to the mid and upper 50s SE. Highs will recover a bit Thursday and Friday with temps in the 60s to low/mid 70s. Clouds and showers will limit heating on Saturday with highs in the 60s. Much colder air moves in as the coastal low pulls north of the area Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 30s inland and only low 40s near the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1155 AM EDT Sunday... Other than possible patchy ST/FG (late) tonight...VFR conditions expected through the 18Z/06 TAF forecast period. Sfc hi pres to remain off the coast as a weakening cold front approaches from the WNW. Ahead of/accompanying the front Mon morning will be BKN mainly mid level clouds w/ only a very lo PROB for SHRAs. Winds remaining mainly S this afternoon-early Mon morning...generally 5-15 kt. Winds shifting to NNW Mon afternoon...then NE and increasing into Tue (highest at the coast). OTW...VFR conditions will continue Mon afternoon through Thu. Increasing clouds and PoPs by Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... High pressure is situated well off the northern mid Atlantic/southern New England coast with low pressure north of the Great Lakes. S/SE winds are generally 5-10kt over the marine area early this morning, with seas around 4 ft in easterly swell offshore and waves of 1-2 ft or less across the Bay and 1 foot or less in the rivers and sound. The pressure gradient will be a bit weaker compared to Saturday, with resulting S/SE winds increasing only to 10-15kt this aftn/evening. Even lighter winds area expected for most of Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Big changes come Late Monday night through Wednesday, as a strong area of high pressure is forecasted to move E/SE from Canada to over the Northeast U.S. as low pressure strengthens off the Atlantic coast of Florida. NHC has a 50% chc for either tropical or subtropical development across the Bahamas/Florida by Tue-Wed. Either way, with this low centered well to our south and the strong high gradually ridging S into the local area Tue-Wed, a very tight pressure gradient (strongest winds) is expected from the southern Outer Banks to northern FL. A period of Gales still looks to be 50%+ across our far southern VA and NE NC coastal waters as well as the Currituck sound Tue/Tue night and have issued a Gale Watch for these zones. A period of strong SCAs is likely for the remainder of the area (with the typical brief surge of gale force wind gusts for less than 1 hr possible early Tue morning in the wake of the cold front). Increased waves/seas are expected during this period,peaking late Tue/Tue night seas building to 9-11 ft S and 7-9 ft N, with waves of 3-5ft in the Bay (5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Slowly diminishing winds Wed night, and especially Thu but seas likely remain at or above 5 ft through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... A period of increasing tidal anomalies will likely result in coastal flood issues across the region Tue-Thu (mainly for Hampton Roads including the lower Bay/lower James as well as locations along the coast from Northampton Co VA to Currituck NC). The current TWL forecast has minor flood thresholds being reached by the Tue morning high tide cycle across Hampton Roads/SE VA/NE NC at the coast. With strong NE winds continuing, along with rather high astronomical tides, expect Wed morning's high tide cycle to be similar to or slightly higher than Tue. At this time however, this still looks to primarily be a minor flood event with possibly some localized moderate flooding in a few spots from Va Beach to Corolla. Therefore, no Coastal Flood Watches will be issued at this time. For places farther N along the coast and across the mid and upper Ches Bay, the pattern is less favorable for flooding, and portions of the mid/upper Bay are actually expected to see negative tidal departures Tue- Wed given the strong NNE winds. It remains uncertain how things evolve by Thu, if water gets trapped in the Bay with winds gradually diminishing then some minor flooding could make its way farther N up the Bay. Low pressure is forecast to move NNE from FL up the coast late in the week into next weekend. Depending on track, this could lead to additional coastal flood issues but is beyond the forecast period and highly uncertain. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures: Sunday Nov 6th Monday Nov 7th: Richmond: 81 (1975) 79 (1978) Norfolk: 85 (2003) 78 (1975) Salisbury: 81 (1961) 78 (1938) Elizabeth City: 83 (2018) 81 (1938) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ633-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...ALB MARINE...CP/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...