462 FXUS66 KSEW 061642 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 842 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A front will move inland today with rain changing to showers and snow in the mountains. Cool showery weather will continue tonight and Monday with gusty Fraser outflow developing. The rest of the week will be mostly dry but chilly. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...No major updates were made this morning. Rest of previous discussion follows. A cold front will move through the area this morning with rain changing to showers. The mountains will pick up several inches of snow today with snow levels around 2000 feet. An upper low off the coast will maintain a chance of showers for Western WA tonight into Monday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms near the coast, closest to the upper low. The upper low will shift south Monday night and Tuesday with the shower threat ending. It will be rather chilly the next few days with highs in the mid to upper 40s today and lower to mid 40s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be chilly as well, dipping into the 20s for some locations Monday and Tuesday nights. At the surface, offshore flow will develop tonight, increase on Monday and continue into Tuesday with Fraser outflow bringing windy conditions to the north interior, especially Western Whatcom County. The other short term concern is possible lowland snow. For most of the area, it looks like the usual battle between tapering shower chances by the time the air mass is cold enough for accumulating snow. Initially, the best chance for some minor accumulations looks to be for Western Whatcom County Monday morning. That area should dry out later Monday as Fraser outflow increases. The other best threat would be upslope into the Olympics along the Eastern Strait and Hood Canal Monday into Monday night. Ensembles suggest there is a small chance that locations like Port Angeles could pick up a few inches but the most likely scenario is little to no accumulation. 16 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...High pressure aloft and weakening offshore flow will bring cool and dry conditions to the area in the middle of the week. The upper ridge will break down late in the week with a weak weather system bringing a slight chance of rain or possible a rain/snow mix to some locations. It will remain cool but temperatures will moderate slightly by next weekend. 16 && .AVIATION...An upper trough is situated just offshore this morning with southwest flow aloft over Western Washington. The air mass will be somewhat unstable today. A cold front is moving into the Cascades as of 16Z. Scattered showers will continue across the region with MVFR ceilings at times. Shower coverage will increase tonight as an upper level disturbance rotating around the trough pushes onshore. 27 KSEA...Scattered showers continuing into the afternoon with some modest improvement in ceilings expected after about 18Z. MVFR ceilings will remain possible around some of the heavier showers. Showers increase again tonight with ceilings lowering as upper level disturbance shifts eastward across the area. Gusty southerly surface winds easing this morning and becoming E/SE generally under 10 knots. 27 && .MARINE...A cold front will cross through western WA this morning. Meanwhile, seas at the Coastal Waters will range from 10-16 feet. The flow will turn offshore and strengthen on Monday with strong Fraser River outflow winds. N/NE gales are possible over the northern Inland waters and through then central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong offshore flow will continue through Tuesday then ease on Wednesday. 33 && .HYDROLOGY...River flooding from recent rains has ended.Otherwise, no river flooding is expected for the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Olympics-West Slopes North Cascades and Passes-West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes South Central Cascades and Passes. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Admiralty Inlet- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$