666 FXUS64 KJAN 061606 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Frontal boundary extends from northeast to southwest generally just north of the Natchez Trace Corridor this morning. As instability increases a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will develop early this afternoon near the boundary. The showers/storms will move north-westward into the Delta with the front through the afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s in the north to low 80s in the south. /15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Today and tonight: The front which brought heavy rain and gusty winds to the region 24 hours ago has stalled roughly along or just north of the Natchez Trace and is now beginning to retreat northward across the Delta as a warm front. To the south of this front, a broad low stratus deck currently encompasses most of the area, along with reduced visibilities in a combination of areas of fog and light drizzle. So far, fog has not met "dense" thresholds in our area, but some sites having been hovering around 1 mi, and if 1/4 mi visbys become more widespread, it is possible a Dense Fog Advisory could be issued for a portion of the area later this morning. For now, we will continue to highlight dense fog potential in the graphics/HWO, though we will expand the area highlighted from previous forecasts. The pesky shallow low level moist layer will make for slow clearing today and some areas may remain cloudy for most of the day. Otherwise, isolated light showers will be possible along the front, with the focus later today shifting to west/southwest MS and central LA. By tonight, as the front continues northward, scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated storm, will be possible in a region of enhanced isentropic ascent over northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS. Farther south and east, redevelopment of fog or low clouds appears likely overnight in the lingering humid airmass. Dense fog could again become a possibility, but to prevent any confusion with this morning's round, will leave the decision of mention in the HWO to later shifts. /DL/ Monday through Thursday: Fog should lift/dissipate early Monday morning, and warm advection showers/storms will continue to be possible over mainly northwest portions of the forecast area for roughly the first half of Monday, but then expect the more favorable ascent to shift north of the area by afternoon as an unusually strong mid/upper level ridge becomes fixed over the southeast CONUS. Otherwise, we'll see unseasonably warm days with the potential for getting close to daily record highs (mostly mid 80s) going through mid week. Milder but still above normal temperatures can then be expected by end of the week as a strengthening western Atlantic low slowly moves across the FL peninsula and helps draw drier air southward. Friday and Saturday: A dramatic weather pattern change is forecast by most guidance by the end of the week into next weekend. In the span of about 48 hours, global models indicate we'll shift from a western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper level pattern to a western ridge/eastern trough pattern. The northwest flow aloft will allow a dry, significant cold front to push easily through the forecast area by Friday, with very chilly temperatures to follow for the weekend. Forecast confidence for a freeze to occur Saturday night is increasing. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 A broad area of IFR/LIFR stratus encompasses the region this morning, accompanied by areas of MVFR to LIFR fog. Visibilities will improve to VFR by mid-morning, but ceilings may be slower to improve with some areas not returning to VFR until this afternoon. Meanwhile, scattered SHRA are ongoing across northeast LA and west MS. These will remain possible through the day, becoming more focused over northeast LA/southeast AR/northwest MS tonight when isolated TS are also possible. Redevelopment of patchy/areas of low clouds and fog is expected late tonight into Monday morning, with categorical reductions likely at some sites. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 80 64 84 63 / 30 10 10 0 Meridian 80 62 84 62 / 10 0 10 0 Vicksburg 80 65 84 63 / 30 30 20 0 Hattiesburg 83 64 86 64 / 10 0 10 0 Natchez 81 64 84 64 / 40 10 10 0 Greenville 74 64 80 62 / 20 50 40 0 Greenwood 76 65 82 63 / 30 40 30 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 15/JAN/JAN