390 FXUS61 KCLE 061132 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 632 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep southeastward across the area Sunday evening. High pressure will build into the region behind the frontal passage Monday into mid-week. Low pressure will move into the region to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6:30 AM Update... No major changes needed to the forecast. Last lingering showers remain across extreme NW PA this morning and will slowly move eastward out of our forecast area within the next few hours. Peak heating across the area in addition to clearing skies may allow for periods of gusty winds around 20-25 mph across western and central locations. Winds will subside again by the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Previous discussion... A pleasant and quiet near term forecast period behind the cold frontal passage. The front continues its eastward progression across the forecast area through early this morning. Skies will gradually clear throughout the morning and afternoon hours today from west to east. Above average temperatures will remain in place to end the weekend. Highs today will be in the upper 60s, about 10-15 degrees above normal. A secondary cold front will cross the region southeastward this evening. CAA from this front will drop highs on Monday into the upper 50s, much closer to seasonal highs for early November. Surface high pressure and drier air will build in behind the secondary cold front for the beginning of the work week. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Very few changes overall to the forecast through midweek. High pressure over Ontario moves ESE to the New England coast, with surface winds transitioning from northerly to southerly and back to return flow. Cool conditions Tuesday go through a warm up Wednesday as a result. Dry weather through the short term. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Digging upper low over the plains region tracks into the Great Lakes for the end of the week with a strong cold front slated for Friday passage. This will be a more significant change to the airmass for the weekend. Will need to watch for possible interactions with some tropical moisture, but as of right now, that looks to be with the frontal passage east of the CWA. Expecting 40s for the beginning of the weekend. Southerly winds will persist through the end of the week, ahead of a strong cold front Friday. Lake conditions will deteriorate into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with clearing conditions occurring from west to east throughout the day today. Sustained southwesterly winds of 10-12 knots expected this afternoon at all terminals, with the potential for gusts of 18-20 knots through the afternoon in peak heating. Winds quickly subside by the evening, becoming generally westerly at 10 knots or less. Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds out of the west southwest have subsided to the 10-15kt range this early Sunday morning. They will likely become a little more southwesterly Sunday before turning back to the west and eventually the northwest into Monday. High pressure influences passing from northwestern Ontario through Quebec and then to the New England coast will continue to turn the winds eventually to the northeast Tuesday. Wave heights in the onshore flow regime will likely be in the 2-3ft range late Monday through Tuesday. By Wednesday, with the surface high off the New England coast, the winds get back to a southerly component, and southeast winds turn southwest through the end of the week. A strong cold front will likely push through the lake later on Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...26