320 FXUS63 KDVN 061122 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 522 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 A cool and mostly clear start to the night was seen, as the low pressure system that impacted the area continues to move out of the region. With that said, we remain in low level southerly flow ahead of the next approaching cold front. With this, some upper level moisture is streaming in and leading to a thick canopy of clouds that are moving in to our west. These clouds will continue to invade the skies, which will help to keep temperatures in the low to mid 40s through the remainder of the morning. Some areas are still seeing gusts upwards to 25 mph, but much of the area is seeing much lighter winds than we have in the last 24 hours. Short term period will remain quiet and dry, with some more interesting weather moving in towards the end of the long term period. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Welcome back to standard time! A dry forecast is expected through the short term, as high pressure slowly starts to push into the area this evening. Today, southerly winds will still dominate through the morning, with some residual moisture resulting in some passing clouds. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s, with winds decreasing through the day and shifting northwesterly by sunset, thanks to a weak passing cold front. With the northwesterly flow regime, dryer air will filter into the area, leaving us cloudless through tonight. After the recent heavy rainfall, initial concerns were for fog potential with high pressure and light winds, but the dry air moving in should help keep that at bay. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 30s as well, which is much cooler than what we have seen this last week. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Key Message: 1) Relatively quiet start to the long term period, with our eyes on the mid-late week, as the next potent storm system approaches the area. Discussion... Weak upper ridging sets up through the first half of the week, with a surface high pressure slowly moving through the region. This will help to keep us dry and calm. Temperatures will remain above normal, especially as we approach midweek. As the high pressure slides off to our east, return flow kicks in, leading to some strong warm advection. Long term guidance seems to favor a strong response in temperatures to the warm advection, with most of the area seeing 70s once again for Wednesday and Thursday. To put this in perspective, this will be around 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of the year! Although, all good things must come to an end, especially in transition seasons. Now, we shall introduce the next strong wave that will impact the area late this week. At the moment, guidance is not very consistent. Yesterday, we were introducing wintry precipitation to our forecast. Now, guidance is putting more of a classic system, with wintry precipitation well to our north and a clashing cold front through our area. With that in mind, we can still see some wintry precipitation behind the front, but isn't expected to amount to anything at the moment. Currently, we are looking at the cold front moving through our area Thursday evening and through the night. Along the front, we can see showers and storms. It is too soon to get into details on potential severe weather, but it will not be out of the realm of possibilities. Given a strong cold front, with plenty of warm advection ahead of it and likely a strong shear profile, some stronger storms may be possible. More details will emerge as we get closer to the event and have more confidence on the timing/track of the system. After this system passes through, we are left with more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions going into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty south winds will continue through the morning, with gusts upwards to 20 to 25 KTs. Winds will shift northwesterly by 18Z and decrease in speed. LLWS out of the southwest can be expected until around 14Z, ranging between 40 to 50 KTs around 1000 ft. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gunkel SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel