554 FXUS62 KRAH 061111 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 611 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through Monday. A cold front will drop into the area from the northwest Monday night, and settle to our south early Tuesday, as strong low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 249 AM Sunday... Broad southwesterly flow aloft remains in place across the region this morning, as an upper ridge maintains its position off the coast while a deep upper low makes its way into Canada. At the surface, a cold front continues its eastward trek through the TN Valley, albeit at a slowing pace as the parent low races northward into Canada. Meanwhile, central NC remains in the pre-frontal warm advection regime with southeasterly winds (with occasional gusts) persisting this morning. Temperatures have moved little since Saturday evening with many locations still in the mid to upper 60s as of 08Z. Showers moved across the western Piedmont earlier this morning and dissipated, but additional development is occurring just downwind of the mountains. Warm advection will continue through the day today and given the mild start to the day, temperatures this afternoon should once again have no problem rising into the lower 80s. Pre-frontal moisture transport will be maximized across the western Piedmont this afternoon with an axis of 200-500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing before 18Z. As such I've increased PoPs west of the Triangle and included a mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. Not anticipating a severe threat with anything that develops but some thunder is possible nonetheless. Meanwhile to the east the BL should remain too stable to support showers or thunderstorms and I kept the forecast dry. Any showers that develop today should dissipate by this evening, with cloud cover lingering into early Monday morning. As the front is not expected to move through until late Monday, overnight temperatures will remain mild once again with low/mid 60s forecast early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 249 AM Sunday... The cold front will finally make a push across the mountains on Monday and move through NC Monday night. The front will be displaced from any appreciable mid/upper level forcing and in all likelihood it will be a dry frontal passage, but some guidance is hinting at some enhanced pre-frontal moisture convergence Monday afternoon across the northern Coastal Plain and I've included some low PoPs (15-20 percent) in those areas. Monday will be the final warm day of this recent stretch with highs once again climbing into the low to mid 80s. However temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, all the way into the upper 40s to mid 50s by daybreak Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 133 AM Sunday... An upper ridge will remain over our area Tue-Thur with sfc high pressure centered to our north extending south into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure just northeast of the Bahamas on Tue will drift wwd through Thur, becoming positioned somewhere invof the S.FL coast by Thur morning. While there's a lot of model differences and uncertainty with the aforementioned sfc low, it appears that our weather during the Tue-Thur afternoon time frame will be dry with seasonable temps, albeit somewhat breezy, if not windy at times due to a tight pres grad between the high center to our north and the low to our south. Temps will be at or just above normal during that time. For the Thur night through Sat time frame, confidence is low given the model differences with the aforementioned low to our south. Nevertheless, it appears that whatever the track of the said low turns out to be, the sfc low, or more importantly it's moisture, will eventually get drawn north into our area as early as Thur evening or night as a longwave trough to our west approaches. Thus look for decent rain chances beginning Thursday evening and lingering through early Saturday morning until the upper trough axis sweeps across. After the trough axis and sfc low exit to our northeast, look for decreasing cloudiness, breezy northerly sfc winds, and CAA beginning mid-day Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 611 AM Sunday... INT/GSO: The majority of today's sub-VFR weather will be across the western Piedmont, where a combination of scattered showers and IFR cigs remain in place this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms (still withholding mention of thunder from TAFs since instability will be greater to the south) will be included in the TAFs for several hours this morning through the afternoon hours, with intermittent periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys within any of the stronger showers that move through the area. Once precip tapers off this evening, expect a return of IFR cigs/vsbys for the overnight hours. RDU/RWI/FAY: Mainly VFR weather today although a few pockets of IFR vsbys are drifting through the Coastal Plain (specifically RWI). Any morning fog should be gone by 14Z with dry/VFR conditions anticipated through the afternoon/evening hours. Most guidance pointing to widespread IFR or lower fog developing late tonight and I started trending the forecast in that direction. Looking beyond 12z Mon, VFR conditions are likely to dominate after Monday morning's fog mixes out, although a mostly dry cold front passage Mon will bring a shift of winds from the NE, and perhaps some gusts late in the day as colder air pours into the area from the N. As this NE flow pulls Atlantic moisture into the area, periods of MVFR cigs are possible Wed and Thu, mainly in the SE. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record Max and High Minimum temperatures through Mon, November 7: GSO RDU FAY 11/6: 80 (1975)/65 (1938) 83 (2003)/65 (2015) 85 (1961)/71 (2003) 11/7: 78 (1938)/61 (1938) 80 (2008)/61 (2003) 81 (1975)/65 (2003) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Leins/Hartfield CLIMATE...MWS