773 FXUS63 KDLH 061103 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 503 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 432 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Active weather continues through much of the short and long term forecast. On tap today: strong west winds across the region, gales on Lake Superior, near critical fire weather, and snow showers over the International Border. Chance for more precipitation arrives Tuesday with a more impactful wintry system possible late this week. Early this morning, some very light precipitation is falling over central Minnesota, competing with a lot of dry air across the region, so this is mostly manifesting as light drizzle or rain. Expecting this frontal area to push east fairly quickly leaving much of the region dry today. On the backside of this system exists a strong pressure gradient that will bring very strong winds to the region. Expecting west winds over land to increase in magnitude through mid afternoon, aided by not only the pressure gradient but very deep mixing up to around 800mb and benefiting from a strong jet at that level. Euro ENS EFI values for max wind gusts are well over 80% across a broad swath of our CWA. A Wind Advisory has been issued from Cass to Pine County and north to cover Carlton/South St. Louis through this afternoon. These winds will combine with fairly dry air to produce near-critical fire weather conditions as well. Over land, winds should decrease this evening for most. However, as winds turn northwesterly along with CAA, we are expecting downslope winds along the North Shore to keep gusty conditions going overnight into early Monday morning, and a separate Wind Advisory has been issued for this hazard. Additionally today, with steep low level lapse rates across the occluded quadrant of the low pressure pushing east, some snow showers are possible along the International Border, which could briefly reduce visibilities, though dry air near the surface may limit impacts. Ensembles have trended upward recently for the chance of light snow this afternoon, especially around International Falls, so we have decent confidence in this solution. Moving beyond today, Monday should be fairly dry and relatively quiet compared to today. Into Tuesday, a deep upper level trough begins to push inland over the Rockies, facilitating broad moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico. This appears to initially manifest as an elongated area of low pressure across the central and northern Plains, bringing rain and maybe some thunderstorms, to the region Tuesday. As this trough winds itself up and traverses northeast towards the Great Lakes region, a more pronounced low pressure system is expected to develop and head our way. With sufficient CAA on the backside, this system could be a wintry weather producer - likely with a mix of precipitation types due to temperatures and a stout warm nose. It's too far out for fine details, but there is an impressive amount of agreement amongst the global models relative to this time frame found in deterministic solutions, ensemble output, and cluster analysis. Look forward to hearing more about this system as we get closer! && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 501 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Mostly VFR conditions this morning as an area of very light rain and drizzle passes over the region. Dry air near the surface has kept cloud bases high, though occasional dips to MVFR levels and visibilities are possible as precipitation passes over terminals. This area of light showers should move east fairly quickly this morning leaving predominantly VFR conditions, with very gusty west winds building this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to gust 25 to 35 knots today, strongest at BRD. Most winds should begin to calm down this evening, though elevated wind speeds could linger into the evening and overnight at DLH and up the North Shore. The one area where clouds are expected to linger through the day today is over the International Border, and some on and off snow showers are possible this afternoon at INL, which could lead to MVFR ceilings and temporary visibility reductions. Have put in MVFR visibilities for now, but the strongest showers could lead to greater category reductions. Conditions should improve overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Winds have begun to turn southerly early this morning and are expected to become strong through the day today, building in strength through the morning and afternoon. We have high confidence in widespread gales across all of Western Lake Superior and a Gale Warning goes into effect beginning this morning at 10AM with Small Craft Advisories currently in effect until then. High-end gales are expected this afternoon from Port Wing to the tip of the Bayfield Peninsula and northeast through the Outer Apostle Islands. In this region, the chance for storm-force gusts has decreased, but the sustained wind speeds have increased, so there is little change to possible impacts. Currently expecting waves to build to 5 to 10 feet away from lee-side shores and sheltered locations with occasional waves in the 12 to 14 foot range. Winds turn northerly overnight. Northerly winds could see a local maxima along the North Shore early Monday morning with downslope flow before conditions relatively calm down across the lake into Tuesday. In the long term, expect generally unsettled, fairly characteristic late fall conditions across the lake. The next potentially most impactful period of winds is expected towards the end of the week when strong northeast winds && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 43 26 40 32 / 50 0 0 0 INL 39 26 38 28 / 40 40 0 10 BRD 43 23 39 32 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 47 22 42 27 / 40 0 0 0 ASX 48 27 44 30 / 40 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ025-033>038. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121- 142>148-150. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ121-140>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-141. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens