936 FXUS64 KAMA 061058 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 458 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Similar temps today and warming tomorrow. Fog may be possible Monday morning, particularly in the south, and showers may form Monday night into Tuesday morning in the southeast. Satellite shows high clouds streaming over most of the Panhandles early this morning. The clouds are helping to keep moisture and heat around the area. Amarillo is at 55 degrees this morning, compared to last night's 30 degrees at this time. A cold front is in southern Nebraska to northwestern Kansas and is expected to continue shifting southward into the Panhandles this morning. This will push the lee side low southeast as well as clear clouds out. With very little CAA from zonal flow aloft, the front will cause only minor cooling in high temps for today. The biggest notation will be the breezy north winds during the late morning to early afternoon hours. With clear skies tonight though, temps will be able to drop early on in the evening. Flow aloft will turn to southwesterly by late today due to a closed low digging southward along the Pacific coast and high pressure building in the southeast CONUS. This turn of winds will bring Pacific moisture overhead and bring some high clouds over parts of the Panhandles. As the column saturates overnight, there is some possibility of low clouds developing depending on the turning of the surface winds. If winds become more easterly and can bring an upslope flow, some low to very low clouds may form, particularly in the northern and central Panhandles according to hi-res CAMs. The southern TX Panhandle may be more in line for seeing fog as the high clouds aren't predicted by models. With short range models still disagreeing on the amount of turning in the surface winds, for now have left fog out of the forecast for early Monday morning until better agreement can be seen for locations. The beginning of the work week looks to start off with a warming trend as the surface winds continue to turn southeasterly and bring Gulf moisture into the picture again. With high pressure continuing to build in the southeast CONUS, a warm front is pushed towards the Panhandles. Models are highlighting a mid-level shortwave to come through the area during the overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could kick off some showers and thunderstorms, particularly focused in the southeastern Panhandles. Timing will be everything for the lift and moisture to make the showers happen. Forecast soundings show some elevated instability possible for bringing some isolated thunder, but severe weather does not look favorable. Beat && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 By Tuesday the FA is progged to be under southwest flow aloft with a positively tilted, high amplitude, H25 trough with an axis running from Nunavut, Canada, southwest through far northern CA. Going into Tuesday night a closed H5 low pressure system, associated with the upper level trough, will move on coast over much of central to northern CA per the 00Z GFS run. The EC has the center of the low further north and the CMC has more of an open wave H5 trough with a clear divergence in solutions at this time. This system is progged to eventually send a large cold air mass through much of the US. The path of this closed low will play a big part in temperatures Thursday onward as well as precipitation chances. The general consensus is that the base of the H5 trough will traverse the FA as the closed low moves across the central to northern Great Plains. With the low staying more north, temperatures Thursday are trending warmer in the NBM as well as keeping the FA mainly dry. Tuesday, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Southeast will help pull lots of low level moisture up into the Panhandles with 60 degree dewpoints to move in across much of the central to eastern portions of the combined Panhandles. Even Cimarron County in the western Oklahoma Panhandle could see dewpoints as high as 50. Bufkit soundings depict a very moist lower level with possible fog and low clouds through the late morning into the early afternoon on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are looking very unlikely during the day Tuesday as a decent upper level disturbance would be needed to for elevated activity as there is a large cap in place around H7. Conditions are looking to be mostly grudged in by clouds with a drizzle possible through much of the day early on. Wednesday afternoon is looking to be quite breezy if not windy for much of the FA as a leeside low in eastern CO deepens. Will leave NBM 90th percentile winds in for the forecast. However, there may be some room to go up in wind speeds, possibly leading to wind highlights for Wed afternoon. A Pacific front is progged to move into the FA going into Thursday pushing much of the Gulf moisture off to the east as the aforementioned leeside low gets ejected to the northwest. This appears to be slowing down the possible CAA that will be encompassing much of the north-central to northwestern US. In fact, the CAA appears to want to move east faster than it does south. The NBM has already trended warmer for temperatures on Thu. With the Pacific front pushing moisture east any PoPs given late Thu are now well east of the FA with the newest runs. Above freezing overnight lows will be in place Tuesday night and Wednesday night. With the next system, the Pacific front, and arctic front lows Thursday night through the weekend are looking to be below freezing for much of the area once again. Daytime highs for Friday through Sunday are progged to be in the 50s with the current run of the NBM. 36 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Through 12Z tomorrow, sites should remain VFR. Low clouds and/or fog currently look to hold off until just after the end of this TAF cycle. Winds are northwesterly and light until around 15Z when winds pick up to around 15-20kts and turn more northerly. Winds should ease back around 21Z to be below 12kts and turn just a bit more northeasterly for the night. Beat && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 38 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 Beaver OK 65 36 68 51 / 0 0 0 20 Boise City OK 62 33 65 48 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 67 39 72 57 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 67 36 70 54 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 67 38 70 54 / 0 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 67 41 68 57 / 0 0 0 20 Dalhart TX 64 33 66 49 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 65 34 68 52 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 69 38 71 56 / 0 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 66 36 69 53 / 0 0 0 20 Pampa TX 65 39 69 55 / 0 0 0 20 Shamrock TX 68 40 69 56 / 0 0 0 30 Wellington TX 70 41 70 57 / 0 0 0 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...16