578 
FXUS65 KBOI 060947
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
247 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Brief break in the
weather this morning as the region remains between systems.
Satellite showing the next cold core low pressure system off the 
coast of British Columbia which will continue southward along the 
Pacific Northwest Coast today. This will allow the upper level 
flow to shift the southwest which will increase the upper level 
moisture for clouds and showers this afternoon mainly across 
Southwest Idaho. However, 30-40 kt 700 mb southwesterly flow and 
10-20 kt southeasterly flow at the surface will likely limit 
precipitation in the Treasure Valley due to shadowing. A cold 
front will moves west to east late tonight through Monday morning.
High- res models show a line of showers ahead for the front as it
moves across the region but again limits precipitation in the 
Treasure Valley due to shadowing. Believe the forcing from the 
front will allow for minimal rain accumulations in the valley 
around 12z. Snow levels remain high ahead of the front around 
6000-7000 feet and lower to near 3000 feet by Monday evening. 
Higher precipitation amounts will be possible in South- Central
Idaho as the front interacts with deeper moisture. The low center 
reaches the Oregon coast Tuesday morning which shifts the bulk of
moisture to the east. This configuration will leave the forecast 
area in relatively dry under divergent flow aloft through
Wednesday morning. Southwesterly flow aloft continues with 
increase southeasterly flow within the boundary layer. Despite the
cold frontal passage, temperatures up to 700 mb remain mild 
through the period, still below normal but remaining at or above 
freezing in the valley. 

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Deterministic models along 
with clusters/ensemble members showing the next upper low that dives 
southward along the Pac Nw coast early in the week continues 
southward to the central coast of California Wednesday. The bulk of 
the dynamics will stay south of the region, but the cold air 
associated with the elongated upper trough should bring areas of 
snow showers to the region with light/moderate accumulations to the 
Boise National Forest and Nv/Id border area. The trough and upper 
low kick eastward Thursday as a high amplitude ridge builds over the 
Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. This 
ridge extends north well into British Columbia. Pockets of gusty 
winds are possible, especially across the Magic Valley region 
Thursday.  By the weekend, systems begin to undercut the upper ridge 
and move into Northern California. How well these systems hold 
together moving further inland is not well resolved among the 
models at this time. The GFS is the most excited about bringing 
another round of precipitation into the region, whereas the 
ECM/Canadian dampen these features out. NBM keeps the forecast dry
for the weekend and given that the ridge trys to remain in the 
area...will continue a dry forecast at this time. Otherwise 
temperatures remaining about 10-15 degrees below normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions, with periods of MVFR in 
light/moderate snow showers across the central mountains of Idaho 
and the NV/ID border area this afternoon and overnight. Mtns 
obscured at times. Surface winds: Light and variable wind to 10 
kts this morning becoming SE-SW 10-20kts with gusts 25-30kt aft 
18z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 25-40kt increasing to 25-50kt 
aft 07/03Z. 

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR