226 FXUS65 KABQ 060935 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 235 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 Warming trend alongside calmer winds and sunny skies will continue through Monday. Winds begin increasing on Tuesday ahead of an incoming storm system. The potential for a high wind event exists on Wednesday along with a quick hit of wintery precipitation across northwestern New Mexico. The system will finish with a dusting of snow across the northern high terrain before exiting north Thursday morning. Much cooler temperatures will be felt in the system's wake to close out the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 221 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 Strong northwest flow at mountain top level is expected to gradually decrease while trending west to southwesterly during the next 12 hours, then starts to strengthen again Monday as the flow becomes southwesterly in advance of the next storm system. Today will see less wind overall as well as a north to easterly wind shift over the plains mainly east of the Pecos Valley, leading to slightly cooler high temperatures over far northeast New Mexico. Most other areas are expected to see additional warming today of about 2 to 12 degrees. Return flow starts to set up tonight but moreso Monday over the eastern plains, resulting in a few degrees of cooling generally along and east of the Pecos Valley where high temperature guidance for some of the area locales varies by up to 9 degrees. The NAM12 is more insistent with potential for patchy low clouds Monday morning but there is much better potential Monday night. There is also the hint of increasing instability over portions of southeast/south central New Mexico Monday afternoon but models are not generating any associated precipitation. Lows tonight and highs Monday will remain a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 221 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 Low pressure on the coast of the PacNW will bring unsettled weather through the extended. A tightening H5 pressure gradient along side deepening sfc lee troughing in eastern CO will bring rise to breezy southwest winds on Tuesday. Return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will help to assist in the development of low clouds across the eastern plains. The moisture will be on the losing side of a war against a strong intrusion of dry air, however, so while its presence may invigorate some showers across the eastern plains, the intensity will likely remain light at best. Winds will continue on the uptick into Wednesday as the system makes its way inland off the coast of CA. This moves the 140 kt jet max into the Desert Southwest while the lee-side sfc low deepens further across eastern CO, creating a sharp sfc pressure gradient near Raton Pass. Elsewhere, brisk H7 flow in excess of 50 to 60 kts will have little resistance transferring down to the sfc in the presence of afternoon mixing, especially along and east of the central mts. The latest run of the GFS tracks this system wetter and a touch further south. The persistence of the moisture has been apparent across ensemble runs with admirable run-to-run consistency. As such, opted to trend PoPs just a skosh higher in response. The low is quickly pulled north, however, limiting its residence in the Land of Enchantment. The fast departure of the system will also bring a quick-hitting Pacific front in its wake across northern NM. Ahead of the front, PTYPE will trend more in favor of rain before changing over to snow Wednesday night. Temperatures in the wake of this front will fall 15 to 25 degrees below Tuesday's readings by Thursday. A hard freeze is on tap for a majority of locales Friday morning, save for portions of the southeast. Friday's daytime highs will trend well below average with clearing conditions and lighter winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Strong nwly flow aloft trending w-swly and decreasing through 07/00Z. Occasional nw gusts to 35kt continuing along the east slopes of the central mt chain through 06/12Z before diminishing. Sfc high pressure to push into ern NM aft 06/18Z with return flow of low level moisture setting up over the area thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 Strong northwest winds at mountain top levels will be decreasing as they transition to west and southwest today, then the southwesterlies over New Mexico strengthen Monday in advance of the next storm system. Overall winds at the surface should be weaker today while a north to easterly wind shift occurs over the eastern plains. Breezy to windy conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with even stronger winds Wednesday into Thursday as the storm system and associated cold front pass from west to east over the region. Increasing low level moisture over the eastern plains may be drawn as far west as the central mountain chain Tuesday into Wednesday, along with spotty light precipitation but will be shunted eastward late Wednesday and Thursday as very strong west to northwest winds prevail. Otherwise the west and north will be most likely to see any precipitation as the cold front and upper system pass through. Strong but dry west to northwest flow dominates Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Above normal high temperatures today through Wednesday will tumble to well below normal Thursday, then remain cooler than normal through the weekend. Ventilation today and Monday will be a mixed bag of poor to good rates with more widespread good to even excellent rates Tuesday through Wednesday before poor rates become widespread Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 32 65 36 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 58 25 63 27 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 59 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 27 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 28 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 65 26 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 63 29 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 67 33 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 41 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 52 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 58 34 59 39 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 61 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 25 58 31 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 52 26 54 29 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 53 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 58 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 61 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 63 27 64 35 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 59 34 61 40 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 32 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 69 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 34 67 39 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 68 34 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 65 36 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 70 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 34 60 40 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 62 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 63 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 62 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 63 35 64 40 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 65 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 68 42 69 46 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 65 40 64 43 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 60 30 60 40 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 65 28 63 34 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 65 29 62 35 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 65 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 63 33 63 47 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 64 31 61 43 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 69 33 66 47 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 72 36 68 46 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 71 36 69 52 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 72 38 69 52 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 73 39 69 55 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 74 38 71 50 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 77 40 71 54 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 75 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 72 40 68 45 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...99