849 FXUS64 KSHV 060833 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 233 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 Areas of fog possible this morning, mainly south of I-20, due to increased moisture from previous rainfall and a slightly unstable low-level airmass. Low clouds to increase in coverage later this morning ahead of a warm front that will drive north into the region this evening. Widely scattered showers will accompany the front and persist through tonight into Monday with a few isolated thunderstorms possible on Monday afternoon mainly across the I-30 corridor. High temperatures today to climb into the 70s. Expect much warmer temperatures tonight behind the warm front with lows ranging from the mid 50s across southeast Oklahoma to the mid 60s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. Otherwise, high temperatures on Monday to range from the mid 70s across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas to the mid 80s across deep east Texas and north Louisiana. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 For the first half of the upcoming work week, broad upper-level ridging will extend across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will result in dry weather over our region, with morning lows in the low to mid 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. By Wednesday evening, the upper ridge will start to shift eastward, and become more centered over the SE CONUS. At the same time, long range models are suggesting that a developing tropical system will move westward underneath the ridge and likely towards the state of Florida. With a sfc high expected to be in place across the Mid- Atlantic states and the tropical system near Florida, northeasterly flow will set-up across the Appalachians, the adjacent SE CONUS, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern extent of the Southern Plains. This would result in some cooler and drier air backdooring into our region by Thursday. However, temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Thursday evening into Friday, a closed upper trough will eject out of the Rockies into the Plains, sending a cold front into the region. With the drier push of air backdooring into the region prior to this front, moisture will be limited ahead of this system. But, can't rule out some isolated showers developing along the front, especially north of Interstate 30. Behind the front, expect dry weather and much cooler temperatures to move into the region by next weekend. Both highs and lows will run some 10-15 degrees below normal on Saturday, with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, along with afternoon highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. There is some indication that morning freezing temps could return to portions of the region by next Sunday. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 Light south winds overnight to allow for sufficient moisture increase to generate fog across portions of north Louisiana and deep east Texas near daybreak. Increased moisture to lead to MVFR ceilings across most sites along and south of I-20 from 07/12Z through 07/18Z before improving to VFR. Southerly winds to increase to 5 to 10 knots areawide. Warm front to move north allowing for MVFR ceilings and VCSH conditions across most terminal sites after 07/03Z. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 65 82 64 / 10 40 30 0 MLU 79 65 83 63 / 20 30 20 0 DEQ 76 58 77 60 / 0 30 40 0 TXK 77 64 77 63 / 0 40 40 0 ELD 76 61 77 60 / 0 40 40 0 TYR 79 67 81 64 / 0 30 40 0 GGG 78 64 80 63 / 0 30 30 0 LFK 79 66 83 63 / 10 20 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...05