547 FXUS65 KBYZ 060832 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 132 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... Winds were still gusting to 45 mph at Baker, otherwise things have come down signifcantly for the entire area. Winds will continue to back off as the night wears on into the morning. Today will be a much guieter day with the wind machine low moving east toward northern Minnesota. Still expecting some gusts to 40 mph over the east, but nothing like what occurred yesterday over western and central zones. Cold high pressure will settle into the area and turn winds northeast to east by afternoon. These winds were bringing in chilly air and highs will be below normal today and stay that way through the week. Highs today and Monday will be in in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The northern Rockies will be between systems today and this will lead to a dry day. Mid level flow backs to the southwest tonight and Monday as an upper low deepens over the northwest United States. Moisture will start to stream into western zones late tonight and Monday. A corridor of moisture and asent on the front side of the trough will set up just to the west of the area Monday but will spread into the western half of the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. This will bring potentially heavy snow back to the high country Monday through Tuesday. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains. There is a chance that snow will spread east into the western plains Monday afternoon, but at this point, models want to hold off this activity until Monday night. TWH Monday night through Saturday... An active pattern is in store for the extended period as a large trough moves in across the area from the Pacific Northwest Coast. Ensembles are in decent agreement with this low stalling along the coast through Tuesday before beginning to lift and eject to the east-northeast the rest of the week. The exact track of this low is still highly uncertainty, but it is looking likely that it will produce widespread precipitation in a couple of waves (Monday night through Wednesday and then a second wave Wednesday through Thursday night). The snow will start to impact western zones Monday night and spread into central zones Tuesday and Wednesday. Accumulating snow is likely for much of the region. Timing looks like western zones (west of Billings) will have the best chance of accumulating snow Monday night through Tuesday night, central zones (including Billings) Tuesday through Wednesday, and the eastern zones (east of Billings) Wednesday and Thursday. Current NBM guidance suggests Billings has a 50% chance of picking up at least 2 inches of snowfall in the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, with a 30% chance of seeing 4 or more inches. Temperatures will be cold all week with highs in the 20s and 30s. The coldest days are looking to be Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the teens to lower 20s and lows in the single digits. Temperatures should moderate for the end of the week into the weekend, but highs will remain below seasonal averages. TWH && .AVIATION... The winds will continue to decrease across the region and the low-level wind shear threat will end as the stronger winds aloft exit to the east through the early morning hours. Once the winds subside, expect a shift in the wind direction from generally westerly to easterly through the day. Outside of winds, light snow showers may obscure the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains during the early morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites today. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 041 023/037 021/026 013/022 011/024 009/029 011/028 0/B 12/O 55/S 66/S 54/S 10/U 11/B LVM 042 017/038 017/030 009/026 009/030 009/035 010/035 0/B 57/S 97/S 66/S 53/S 10/U 11/B HDN 041 022/044 017/029 012/024 008/025 002/030 004/030 0/B 12/O 34/S 65/S 64/S 20/U 01/B MLS 035 019/045 022/029 015/024 009/019 001/022 003/024 0/N 02/S 12/S 55/S 65/S 31/B 01/B 4BQ 039 022/052 023/034 017/029 011/023 005/026 008/029 0/U 11/N 11/B 34/S 55/S 31/B 01/B BHK 034 014/043 024/034 016/026 009/021 001/020 002/024 0/N 13/S 11/B 33/S 65/S 31/B 00/B SHR 041 018/051 020/036 014/029 009/026 008/033 008/035 0/U 21/E 12/S 55/S 64/S 21/U 01/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings