628 
FXUS64 KOHX 060819
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
219 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

After a pretty windy and rainy Saturday, things have calmed down 
considerably. Winds have relaxed across the entire CWA and we're 
finally starting to see some light rain development amongst a swath 
of low clouds covering the central portions of the mid-state. Totals 
should be light, maybe a few hundredths. What could be more 
interesting is the area over our far northwest counties, basically 
Clarksville back to Land Between the Lakes. This area is starting to 
see some clearing and with winds relaxed, patchy dense fog will 
become possible as we near sunrise.

These low clouds draped over Middle TN seem to be a weak boundary of 
sorts, one that will likely stick around for at least another 24 to 
30 hours. Expectations are for this boundary to at least provide 
these low clouds over the east half through today, but by this 
evening, it could become the catalyst for some light rain 
accumulations. Most models are suggesting some shower development, 
so we'll keep some chance PoP in there overnight. A tenth or two 
will be possible in a few spots, with most seeing less. The 
influences of this boundary should taper off Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday) 
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Expect cloud cover to become much less on Tuesday. This should 
allow temperatures to start climbing again with more sunshine. 
Unseasonal afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s will be 
possible both Tuesday, Wednesday and potentially again Thursday.

The final point of contention with tonight's forecast package 
revolves around the pattern for the second half of this week. The 
latest GFS ramps up a late-season tropical wave off of Florida (one 
that I hope doesn't come to fruition), but the influences of this 
wave could very well take away any significant rain chances for us 
on Friday. We will, at a minimum, have the passage of a frontal 
boundary that will usher in much more seasonal temperatures for next 
weekend, but rain chances seem less with it at this point. Will 
maintain a small chance for rain, but there's much to be worked out 
with this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022

Models continue to show low cloud deck increasing over the eastern
half overnight, bringing MVFR cigs to KCSV/KBNA/KMQY. MVFR cigs
may linger into the late morning hours especially at KCSV.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail, with light winds overnight
becoming southwesterly around 5 to 10 knots during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  61  74  54 /  20  30  20   0 
Clarksville    74  56  73  51 /   0  20  10   0 
Crossville     71  58  71  50 /  30  30  30   0 
Columbia       73  61  75  55 /  20  30  30   0 
Cookeville     72  61  73  52 /  30  30  30   0 
Jamestown      72  58  71  49 /  30  30  30   0 
Lawrenceburg   73  61  76  55 /  30  30  30   0 
Murfreesboro   74  61  76  54 /  30  30  30   0 
Waverly        74  58  72  54 /  10  30  20   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Barnwell