131 FXUS63 KABR 060527 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 See updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Radar returns are not accurately representing what is reaching the ground this evening. Dewpoint depressions of 25 degrees continue to indicate a deep dry layer that the precipitation is struggling to overcome, especially in the pre-frontal environment. Post- frontal, however, there is a little more instability that is helping to overcome the dry air. Since most of the pops are slight chance to chance range, will leave them as they are since there may be locations that are seeing some very light showers ahead of the front. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 At 20Z, radar imagery was showing potential precipitation over northwestern and north central SD. While light rain has been reported to our northwest at the KHEI site, it's mainly just been mid clouds so far at KMBG. We'll continue to see the low levels of the atmosphere moisten up over the next few hours, with chances for light accumulating rain increasing under abundant cloud cover. The southern Canadian surface low over south central Saskatchewan will continue to track east tonight, with the cold front currently extending south through eastern MT moving across our area. While light precipitation will be possible, the main concern will continue to be from the winds. Have continued the Wind Advisory starting at 00Z this evening for portions of north central SD, with it expanding across all but our 3 more south-central SD counties. Have highlighted a few locations that could get closer to High Wind Warning gusts during the period: the Leola Hills (mainly McPherson County) and the Sisseton Hills (mainly Marshall, Roberts, Day, and Grant Counties). We'll need to monitor the pressure rises and upstream wind reports to see if any upgrades will be needed. For now though, the strongest pressure rises looks to stay mainly in ND, with the highest winds aloft of 60-65kts moving overhead between 12- 15Z Saturday. The ongoing dry weather (relative humidity values Sunday falling into the 20 percent range) and increased winds will result in critical fire weather conditions across the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon. Have expanded and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. This will be despite temperatures topping out in the 40s. Winds should quickly diminish Sunday evening, with lows in the teens to low 20s Sunday night as the surface ridge sinks in behind the exiting area of low pressure. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 The good news in the long term is that we have several chances of precipitation across the area for next week. Otherwise, enjoy the average/above-average temperatures before they tank by the end of the week. Main concerns in the long term is really the timing of the main low midweek along with timing/intensity of precipitation. Winds are forecasted to be gusty again Monday with another possibility of elevated fire danger. Winds will be gusty periodically as well Tuesday-Thursday With being on the upstream side of both the 500mb trough and 250mb positive tilted jet stream, this will lead to unsettled weather throughout the week with ample amounts of PVA and shortwave energy. Clusters ensembles are in solid agreement starting out on Monday with an anomalous low/trough at 500mb over the Pacific Ocean/Pacific coast with an amplified ridge out east. The models are half and half with some of the ensembles showing it as a closed low while the others keep it an open wave. By Tuesday, this trough will be over much of the western Unites States continuing to provide our area with southwest flow with most of the CWA on the upward side of this ridge. By midweek, the trough will continue to push east with the ensembles starting to disagree on the amplitude and timing of how fast it moves east. Behind the trough, the winds will shift out of the northwest by the end of the week ushering in some cold air. Monday, the high in place will push east and bring our first chance of precipitation (15-40%), from some of this shortwave energy and WAA, mainly for the northwest and parts of the northern CWA. GFS bufkit indicates temps below 0C through the atmosphere early on, meaning if precipitation occurs, it will fall as snow. This will lift north and should be out of our CWA by ~18-00Z. Minimal amount of qpf expected(0.01-0.02). A LLJ will also be in place which will help increase those winds. More WAA induced precip is possible Tuesday across the eastern CWA and spreading west through the afternoon and continuing through Wednesday as it meets up with moisture moving in from the west. ECMWF ENS indicates a 20-60% chance of seeing CAPE >500 J/kg with the greatest area over south central SD. With LL moisture,CAPE,and strengthening LLJ, we cannot rule out some thunderstorms (possibly severe?) during this timeframe. Pop chances Tues-Wed range from 30-60%. The good news is that PWAT values will be above the normal climo (~3x), which should help give us decent qpf and hopefully will help with the drought conditions. WPC QPF Tuesday-Thursday suggest anywhere from 0.10 to just over an inch, with the highest amounts across our eastern CWA. Between Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front will pass through and transition the rain to a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. There is a possibility we could get some mixed precip during the transition, but being this far out, I took it out of the grids. Precip should end by early Friday but again, exact track,timing, and intensity will be narrowed down as we get closer to time. Temps for Monday are forecasted to be in the 40s. Tuesday will be the warmest of the week as WAA is dominant, ahead of the low. Highs will be in the 50/60s. Wednesday starts to get interesting as we will start out warm and as the cold front pushes through, temps will drop into the 30s/40s. Behind the low, a cold air mass settles in place with highs only in the 20s for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Nov 6 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Scattered rain showers will track across eastern parts of the are through the early overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through the day Sunday. Gusty west winds (25 to 40 knots) will develop later tonight and continue through Sunday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ004>011-016>023-033>037. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ003-015. MN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Parkin