649 FXUS62 KILM 060525 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 AM EDT Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will maintain humid onshore winds and above normal temperatures through the weekend. Low pressure over or near the Bahamas early to mid week should shift northward later in the week likely bringing some significant marine and coastal impacts. && .UPDATE... No major changes with the latest update. Radar indicates some showers streaming toward Cape Fear with a few additional showers and/or sprinkles possible across the area overnight as a coastal trough shifts inland but no significant rainfall is expected. Some patchy fog is possible but should be limited in coverage/intensity due to decent boundary layer winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers along the coast will persist for the next few hours as a weak surface trough moves inland. While the showers on radar have a little more bite than previously expected, these should weaken and become more isolated as they move inland. Part of this surprise has been poor moisture profiles in the soundings. The higher dew points have created an almost convective shower type atmosphere similar to summer. This may have some impact on the chance for stratus this evening and even moreso tomorrow morning. Have kept a slight chance of showers east of I-95 and should see a gradual end to the threat after sunset. Becoming cloudy overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. All upper level and lower level signatures show this front weakening as it crosses the western Carolinas. However, given the low level flow on shore and the westerly flow approaching the eastern Carolinas, expect an area of convergence near I-95 tomorrow which may allow for a shower or two. Highs tomorrow will remain quiet warm as we approach record days above 80 degrees in November (see the Climate section below for more details). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Strong high pressure will build down from Canada through early next week. This will push a cold front through and may produce a shower or two Sunday night into Monday. Pcp water values reach up around 1.5 inches along this boundary as it drops through. Otherwise, stiff N-NE flow will develop between high to the north and low developing over the SW Atlantic near the southern Bahamas. High temps will be above normal once again on Monday, making a run for 80. Temps overnight Sun and Mon will drop to near 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure will build down from the north and low pressure will deepen to the south and move westward toward Florida, currently with a 70% chance of non-tropical storm development. This will produce increasing NE winds Tues through midweek. Initially expect dry and cool air to advect in from the north with pcp water values dropping down less than a half inch on Tues into Wed. Latest guidance shows dewpoint temps dropping into the 50s, with 40s inland on Tues into Wed and overnight lows below 50 inland. High temps will be back down toward normal with mid 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast. Overall, cooler and drier northerly flow with more fall-like weather Tues through Wed. As the low to the south moves westward toward Florida, moisture will begin to stream onshore late Wed into Thurs. Should probably see an increase in clouds and then chc of pcp ramping up Thurs into Fri. Should see a day with good rainfall next week and latest models show the best chc on Fri as warm and moist tropical air moves in. Latest National Hurricane Center forecast has 70% chance of development of non-tropical low over the SW Atlantic with movement W-NW through mid to late next week. Regardless of exact position, intensity or track of low next week, indirect impacts from the system will include coastal flooding during high tides Tuesday through Thursday, possible beach erosion and high surf and should end up with a day or so of decent rainfall. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period. Only a very small risk for a shower just about anywhere as well as some mainly early morning low clouds/fog, especially inland at KFLO/KLBT. Extended Outlook... Forecast confidence is moderate in mostly VFR conditions through Wednesday, except for some MVFR or worse ceilings/vsbys due to early morning low clouds/fog. Moderate confidence for restrictions from low clouds/rain Wednesday night/Thursday. Gusty winds over 20 kt likely mid week, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Through Sunday: Expect diminishing winds as a coastal trough shifts inland and the pressure gradient weakens. Seas will slowly diminish in accordance, likely falling below Small Craft Advisory levels (6 ft) later this morning. Sunday night through Thursday: Hazardous marine conditions will develop next week as strong high pressure builds down from Canada and low pressure develops over SW Atlantic early in the week. Winds will back to the N-NE as gradient tightens between these two systems. Stiff NE winds will increase to 25 to 30 kts with gale force gusts possible through midweek. Seas already in the 3 to 6 ft range on Monday will shoot up well above Small Craft Advisory criteria Mon night into Tues with seas possibly reaching as high as 10 to 12 ft through midweek. Remain alert for updates on this evolving system. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong northeast to east winds are expected for the middle portion of the week which will be occurring during the full moon. Thus, minor coastal flooding will be possible, mainly during the morning high tides. Also, life-threatening surf conditions and beach erosion will also be possible, especially along east- facing beaches. && .CLIMATE... We should see 5 days in Wilmington with highs in the 80s through Monday, more than twice the normal value for the entire month, and the highest number since November 2017 which also saw five days in the 80s. Long-range CPC outlooks still call for above- normal temps in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJB/RGZ MARINE...RJB/RGZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...