556 FXUS63 KICT 060442 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1142 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Rather benign weather through Monday with chances for elevated showers/storms Monday night thru early Tuesday. A strong upper jet will plow eastward from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains tonight with an upper trof moving over the north central conus thru early Sunday. The associated weak surface cold front will drop south across the area on Sunday with temperatures near seasonal climo. Ridging aloft will develop over the lower Plains on Monday with modest southwesterly flow aloft across the Rockies in advance of the developing trof along the West coast. Stronger low and mid-level moisture transport will develop across the central Plains in the warm advection pattern late Monday into Tuesday. This is expected to result in modest elevated instability for chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precip chances could linger into midday Tuesday leaving a breezy and milder afternoon in its wake. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 The medium range models are in better agreement in the development and movement of another deep longwave upper trof over the western conus which will lift east-northeastward across the Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. As the deepening tropospheric cyclone lifts across the northern Plains the associated surface cold front will sweep east-southeastward across Kansas. Warm and windy conditions expected ahead of this system on Wednesday with better precip chances for pre-frontal showers/storms to some post-frontal rain to wintry mix Thursday into Thursday night. Then dry and much cooler for the end of the week. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Aviation concerns are still expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Weak cold front is still expected to push through Sun morning into the early afternoon hours. Precip is still not expected as it moves through and will only act to flip winds around to the north and northeast. High clouds will persist tonight through much of Sunday and will remain at VFR levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Low to moderate fire weather concerns expected thru early next week. Stronger south winds and above normal temperatures are expected to elevate the grassland fire danger on Wednesday afternoon into the very high category. However, higher dew points and modest daytime humidity levels should keep fire danger from going into the more critical extreme values. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 41 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 Hutchinson 38 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 Newton 40 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 10 ElDorado 41 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 10 Winfield-KWLD 42 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 Russell 37 61 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 37 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 39 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 38 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 10 Coffeyville 45 66 44 67 / 0 0 0 10 Chanute 44 65 44 66 / 0 0 0 10 Iola 44 64 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 44 66 45 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...RBL FIRE WEATHER...KED