635 FXUS64 KOUN 060350 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1050 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A temporary return to zonal flow aloft occurs as the departing shortwave ejects quickly towards the Great Lakes, and as another mid-level low tracks along the US/Canadian border. A strong jet streak (~175kts) passes over the Pacific Northwest states today and translates eastward along the base of the Canadian low. The lee-side surface low shifts southeast across the TX panhandle and western north Texas tomorrow. A weak front extending northeast from the surface low moves slowly through the north/west parts of the FA tomorrow. The boundary is forecast to extend from near Altus to OKC to Stillwater by mid-day with breezy post-frontal winds expected across parts of north/west Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler across northern and parts of western Oklahoma. Highs range from the mid-60s to near 80 degrees. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 A transition to southwest flow then begins Sunday night as another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and as a subtropical jet reaches Baja California. This begins to set the stage for the next strong front, which is expected to reach our FA end of next week. Meanwhile, the weak front over our area tomorrow shifts a bit to the southeast Sunday night and then lifts as a warm front on Monday. With moisture advection evident and some isentropic lift modeled over southeast, there is a chance of light rain and patchy drizzle and/or fog early Monday morning with shower/storm chances Monday afternoon across the southeast. Tuesday afternoon, southerly winds increase across our western counties as the aforementioned trough digs off the coast of California and the lee trough begins to deepen. Wednesday appears to be the windiest day of the week as the pressure gradient tightens over the south-central plains and the mid-level trough axis crosses Nevada and reaches the central Rockies. With this package, rain chances increased slightly and expanded from northern Oklahoma and into central OK on Wednesday night with chances continuing through early Friday morning. Latest guidance is in relatively good agreement with regard to the upper pattern through Tuesday night. Starting Wednesday, there is significant uncertainty though the overall pattern as guidance waffles from run to run. For example, the maximum temperature boxplot for Durant on Thursday show solutions ranging from 50 degrees (25th percentile) to 54 degrees (median) to 68 degrees (75th percentile) - an 18 degree spread in probable outcomes. Freezing temperatures remain possible on Thursday night and Friday night with very low chance of rain/snow mix on Thursday night for parts of northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 South winds overnight will shift to the north behind a weak cold front that will move south across the area during the day Sunday. Otherwise, a few high clouds expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 46 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 42 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 49 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 36 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 42 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 48 74 57 77 / 0 0 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30