450 FXUS65 KABQ 060159 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 759 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Winds continue tapering off this evening as winds aloft slowly relax and back west/southwest. Wind highlights have been allowed to expire. Local gusts near 35 kt are possible at a couple sites thru 06Z and most areas will fall below 20 kt by sunrise. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 High winds along and immediately east of the Central Mountain Chain this afternoon will begin to subside this evening. This will give way to warmer and calmer weather Sunday and Monday ahead of the next storm system for the middle of next week. Winds look to begin increasing Tuesday, along with a bank of low clouds looking likely across the eastern plains. There is potential for high winds to return Wednesday with most areas clearing across eastern NM while a mix of valley rain and mountain snow begin to enter far northwestern NM. The mix of winter weather looks to spread to lower elevations across far northern NM Wednesday night quickly exiting the area by Thursday morning. Calmer weather returns by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Breezy to windy conditions will linger over mountain tops and across east central areas through the evening as the flow aloft remains strong. Low temperatures are forecast to warm a few to around 15 degrees over last night's readings with the flow aloft becoming zonal by Sunday morning. A backdoor cold front will sag into the eastern plains with a wind shift late tonight and Sunday, dropping high temperatures over far northeast areas a few to 6 degrees. Late Sunday night, the potential exists for a rich return flow of low level moisture to work its way northwestward over portions of NM's far eastern plains. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Warmer Fall weather takes hold Monday with southerly winds bringing in warmer air into the forecast area. The leading edge of surface return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will enter southeastern NM late in the day increasing low-level moisture there along with the temperature. This will all be ahead of a deepening trough that is expected to dive down the Pacific coastline and across the Rockies for middle of next week. The influx of boundary layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to a blanket of low clouds across eastern NM Tuesday morning. Cross-sectional and sounding data continues to support a capped boundary layer as drier southwest flow aloft moves in through the day Tuesday across the eastern plains. Thus have included a mention of only sprinkles from this low cloud deck for Tuesday as any vertical development during the afternoon should quickly see dry air entrainment shunting any potential for meaningful precipitation there. Have also gone below guidance for MaxT’s across the eastern plains given the expected long duration cloud cover there, but highs Tuesday will greatly depend when these clouds clear out. Increasing southwest winds will be the rule areawide however Tuesday as the center of the H5 low nears San Francisco and its associated 125kt H5 jetstreak begins to wrap around and move over southern CA Tuesday night. This jetmax moves over the Desert Southwest Wednesday, bringing a widespread windy day to the Land of Enchantment. High wind potential does exist for Wednesday afternoon and will likely reach the higher elevations where H7 wind speeds will be 45-55kts. At the surface, these southwesterly winds will shunt the aforementioned return flow from the Gulf eastward back into Texas through the day. This will allow for these stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface with greater efficiency, focusing through the highlands adjacent to the Central Mountain Chain Wednesday afternoon. Models also continue to advertise a lee-side surface low over eastern CO producing a sharp surface pressure gradient at Raton Pass. This would also further enhance the high wind potential here in particular. Thankfully, winds look to subside quickly as the upper low tracks back NE across UT into WY Wednesday night with a quick hitting Pacific front swinging through northern NM. This fast northerly track will limit precipitation potential mainly to northwestern and north-central NM Wednesday and Wednesday night. Snow levels look to fall fairly quickly with the arrival of the Pacific front to valley levels sometime Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Thus valley rain and mountain snow mid-day Wednesday should transition to mostly snow or graupel by Wednesday evening for northwestern NM. Lighter accumulations and blowing snow look likely given the fast translation speed this system is expected to have. Thereafter, a calmer weather pattern takes hold with temperatures rebounding heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Strong winds will continue thru 06Z w/ gusts near 40 kt along the east slopes of the central mt chain and nearby high plains. Winds aloft then taper off overnight while backing W/SW thru Sunday. This transition will allow stronger surface winds and mountain wave action along the central mt chain to diminish. A surface high will then build south down the Front Range Sunday and allow winds to shift from the northeast across eastern NM. Otherwise, more tranquil weather is expected Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022 No critical fire weather conditions are expected the next 7 days, but there will be periods of strong winds. Strong mountain top winds will continue through this evening keeping breezy to windy conditions in the forecast there and along the I-40 corridor of eastern NM. Much lighter winds are expected Sunday, when a backdoor cold front will sag into the eastern plains. South then southwest wind speeds will trend stronger Monday through Wednesday as a broad low pressure system drops southward along the west coast, then ejects northeastward across the Great Basin. Gusts in the 40-50 mph range look common for Wednesday afternoon, except potentially around 60 mph over mountains peaks and northeast areas. The storm system crossing the western US is forecast to steer rain and snow showers over western and north central parts of the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but wetting precipitation will probably be spotty and favor the Tusas Mountains. In the wake of the storm system, northwest flow will probably be weaker but still gusty in spots on Thursday, then winds will weaken further Friday. High temperatures will probably bottom out Thursday and Friday with readings around 5 to 15 degrees below normal, with the potential for widespread poor ventilation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 29 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 58 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 29 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 27 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 24 65 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 28 66 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 35 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 29 64 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 67 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 35 68 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 20 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 34 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 21 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 54 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 22 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 24 60 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 62 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 26 66 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 69 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 66 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 35 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 34 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 32 69 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 33 69 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 61 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 35 64 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 28 66 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 39 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 39 67 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 32 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 64 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 31 66 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 39 60 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 37 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 37 70 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 70 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 41 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 42 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 42 73 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 43 74 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 40 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42