221 FXUS64 KMEG 060153 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 853 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Skies are cloudy over portions of northeast Mississippi and west Tennessee with mostly clear skies over the remainder of the Mid- South. Temperatures this evening are in the lower 50s to lower 60s. All of the showers have moved out of the region with only some patchy drizzle remaining. Some additional areas of drizzle as well as areas of fog will be found overnight as temperatures drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Sunday morning. Will update forecast to remove PoPs overnight. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Currently...The cold front that brought 1 to 1.5 inches of rain to the Mid-South is located from the TN River into NE MS and will soon exit into Middle TN and northern AL. The main band of rain has exited the region with just a few leftover showers across NE MS. Temps are generally in the 60s with east AR stuck in the upper 50s. Breezy conds continue with SW winds at 15 mph with frequent gusts above 20 mph. Skies are clearing from the west. Tonight and Sunday...The rapidly weakening front will stall just SE of the region tonight. A few showers will linger into the evening across NE MS otrw clearing skies are expected with lows in the 40s. The gradient will slacken considerably and some patchy fog is likely especially south of I-40. Upper level heights begin to rise on Sunday as what is left of the surface front remains just SE of the area or perhaps wavers into NE MS. Expect a good deal of sunshine and above normal temps. Sunday night and Monday...The weak front will lift north as a warm front. A weak WWA may kick off some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. However with an upper ridge strengthening over the area expect this convection to struggle. WWA will quickly break down in the morning and by later in the day a 591dm 500 mb ridge will be centered over the Mid-South. Temps will again be above normal with readings in the 70s and perhaps a few 80s over NE MS. Tuesday through Thursday...An anomalous upper level ridge will be centered over the Mid-South. Temps will be well above normal. Meanwhile a system undercutting the upper ridge may move across FL during this time frame. This will likely advect in drier air from the east into the Mid-South. Rain free conditions expected. Veteran's Day...The deep upper trough over the western US will eject eastward by the end of the week and drive a cold front through the Mid-South sometime Friday. Not much sensible weather with this front but there is some chilly Canadian air behind it. Highs on Saturday may only be in the 40s. Ensembles are indicating that a pattern change is likely with more troughing in the eastern U.S and a shift to below normal temperatures for a change from Friday into early next week. Unfortunately no big precipitation producers over the next week to 10 days over the major river basins in the middle of the country. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Low clouds have persisted across northeast MS and portions of west TN and probably won't go anywhere this evening. In fact, these clouds should persist overnight and through much of the day tomorrow, falling to 500-1000 ft at times. In addition to the low clouds, fog will be possible overnight. In cloud free areas, especially those east of the MS River, fog could be dense at times. Mid-level clouds are expected to move in from the south tomorrow afternoon, but no rainfall is anticipated through the evening hours. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...MJ