987 FXUS64 KJAN 060007 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 707 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Tonight through Tomorrow...The line of shower/thunderstorm activity is over the eastern portions of the area this afternoon, and expect the bulk of the activity to move east of the area over the next hour or so. The boundary will continue to hang from northeast to southeast across the area this evening through the overnight hours, and a few showers and possibly an isolated storm will be possible mainly in the east. The main concern tonight will be the possibility of some patchy dense fog generally along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. Will put patchy dense fog wording in the HWO along with a limited fog graphic. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 40s across the Delta behind the front, while only falling into the mid 60s in the southeast. The boundary will continue to extend from the northeast to southwest across the area on Sunday, with a few light rainshowers possible. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the north to around 80 degrees in the south./15/ Sunday night into next weekend ... By Sunday night, lingering showers associated with the remnant frontal boundary should be largely diminishing, with the best chances lingering in the northwest. With the presence of boundary layer moisture and increasing control of surface high pressure, this could combine to create conditions favorable for patchy fog across parts of the area heading into early Monday morning. Conditions will remain otherwise mild with lows in the 60s F. Next week could feature a somewhat unusual series of events across the southeast states and into the southwestern Atlantic. Global model guidance depicts a large upper low developing over the southwestern Atlantic that interacts with a late season African Easterly Wave (AEW) that then moves westward toward the southeastern US coastline. The upper low will be paired with a surface low that could become convectively active, enhanced by the effects of the additional moisture and low level cyclonic vorticity of the AEW. Should convective activity become sufficient, this feature could develop some tropical characteristics as it moves across Florida and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. As surface pressures fall, the broad low will result in increasingly cyclonic flow that could extend as far west as our area. This combined with a strong ridge of surface high pressure to the north will result in winds becoming increasingly northeasterly in our area, entraining somewhat cooler and drier air as this "back door" or wedge cold front moves in from the east. While the push of cooler/drier air will be noticeable, it will likely only bring us down to near climatological temperatures from the well above normal warmth and humidity we will have had prior. Look for highs in the 80s F prior to midweek to fall into mostly the 70s F by Wednesday and Thursday with lows falling from 60s F into the 50s F. Friday, a potent upper trough will drive a strong cold front into and across the area with dramatically falling temperatures. This trough will also help to ensure that whatever tropical shenanigans may be ongoing in the Gulf of Mexico ejects east and away from our area. Severe weather is not expected with this feature and as the best upper level forcing for ascent moves towards New England, it's possible some areas will have the front blow through with little in the way of precipitation at all. The Canadian airmass advecting in will likely prove to be quite cold compared to the warmth we have been experiencing and a freeze/frost threat is possible by Sunday morning particularly for areas along and north of I-20. /86/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 Cntrl and east MS TAF sites remained in IFR-MVFR cigs at 2330Z but conditions had improved to VFR elsewhere. Conditions are expected to lower to IFR from the east tonight. LIFR conditions wl be psbl in the se by 12Z and continue through 15Z. Conditions wl be slow to improve Sunday morning but VFR conditions are expected areawide by 21Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 58 79 64 83 / 20 20 10 10 Meridian 62 79 62 83 / 30 20 10 10 Vicksburg 51 80 63 83 / 10 10 20 10 Hattiesburg 66 82 64 85 / 20 20 10 10 Natchez 55 81 64 83 / 10 10 10 10 Greenville 47 76 62 80 / 0 10 30 30 Greenwood 49 77 63 82 / 10 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 15/LP/22