451 FXUS63 KEAX 020827 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 327 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 327 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2022 Key Messages - Breezy conditions expected over the next few days. Southerly winds with gusts around 30-35 MPH anticipated. Dry fuels and gusty winds elevate fire weather concerns during this period. Burning is discouraged. - Showers and thunderstorm return early Friday morning lasting through the day Saturday. No severe weather or flooding is anticipated at this time. Detailed Discussion A deep synoptic trough works its way onshore today and looks to play a key role in the weather we will experience the next several days. Firstly, SW upper level flow invigorates the LLJ across the central CONUS. An 850mb ridge sits relatively stationary across the eastern CONUS. This creates a compaction zone between the western low and this eastern high resulting in accelerated flow at the 850mb level. Essentially, this keeps the LLJ around through the daylight instead of it dissipating as typical after sunrise. This has two notable effects, the first is that warm moist air continues to be advected northward keeping warm temperatures, and solar heating mixes down this fast moving flow toward the surface resulting in gusty winds. Southerly winds accelerate after sunrise sustaining around 15-20 MPH with gusts around 30-35 MPH. Dry fuels/vegetation combined with these gusty winds elevate fire weather concerns around the region. Winds are not expected to be as strong as we saw last week; however, with the abundance of dry leaves and fuels, fire concerns increase with increasing winds. There have been some subtle changes to the timing of the showers and thunderstorms. Guidance now seems to favor an early Friday morning onset versus late Thursday evening. Guidance also speeds up the storm with rain concluding late Saturday. Regardless of the timing, the impacts have not changed. Friday and Saturday both look to be gray and rainy fall days. The good news is that this will make a decent dent into the precipitation deficit. The rainfall last week ate a notable chunk, but the region is still looking at around 4 inches of additional rainfall needed to fully catch up to seasonal/annual normals. Moisture pumped into the region over the next 48 hours helps setup the atmosphere for meaningful rainfall. Precipitable water values of 1.25 to 1.75 inches indicates a likely chance to knock another inch or two off the deficit. QPF points toward 1.5-2.5 inches of total rainfall expected Friday through Saturday. Looking at soil moistures and river levels, it is clear that the ground can take a lot of water before flooding/flash flooding becomes a concern. However, the PWAT values combined with steady inflow of moisture into the area may result in some efficient rainfall which may cause ponding on impervious surfaces as the water soaks in and/or runs off. Convective parameters remain rather weak; however, instability is still present. Thunderstorm potential seems mainly concentrated toward Friday morning before the front begins to slow down as it approaches the KC metro. Guidance has become more favorable to the digging of the synoptic trough which in turn ejects a surface level leeward cyclone late Friday. This surface low is expected to move through the region Saturday much like what we saw late last week. Precipitation is expected to linger through Saturday, but may last longer into the overnight if rain is able to wrap around the top side of the cyclone. Model guidance still remain split on this solution. Temperatures retract back toward seasonal expectations with highs topping out in the 50s and 60s. Looking further, ridging appears to build across the eastern CONUS which kicks activity to our north early next week. Temperatures also begin to warm again as the seasonal warm tropical and cold polar air masses build up across the continent. As typical, KC sits near the boundary which is expected to start oscillating north and south. This results in the temperatures swings that we are used to during the transitional seasons where there will be stretches of pleasant then chilly weather and vice versa. More rainfall opportunities also appear with this setup with the next opportunity (after this weekend) being late next week. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2022 Breezy VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Southerly winds sustained around 8-10kts continue through the overnight. Winds accelerate to 12-15kts with gusts around 25kts through the afternoon. Gusts subside after sunset; however, breezy conditions last through the end of the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Pesel Aviation...Pesel