104 FXUS62 KMHX 012317 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep east across the area early this evening. Surface high pressure builds back over the area tonight through this weekend. A slight chance for some coastal showers will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid level shortwave dives southeastwards across the area, otherwise generally remaining dry across the CWA through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 717 PM Tue...No big changes to ongoing fcst. Rest of the night is dry as cold front has pushed offshore. TD's are slow to fall, and therefore temps slow to fall as well. Have exhibited a slower diurnal trend in temps tonight, though temps should eventually reach their fcst lows in the low/mid 50s interior to around 60 immediate coast by sunrise. Prev disc... As of 255 PM Tue...Looks like the surface cold front is currently located just west of the Inner Banks late this afternoon. Ahead of the front, widely scattered showers were occurring. The front will continue to move east and is forecast to be off of the coast before 00Z this evening which will end the shower threat. Behind the front winds shift to the north as cooler and drier air pushes into the region in association with high pressure building in from the north. With partly cloudy to clear skies and diminishing winds inland, low temperatures are forecast to be slightly colder tonight dropping into the low to mid 50s across our inland areas and to around 60 along the coast and OBX. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM Tue...High pressure will continue to build over the area from the north Wed producing slightly cooler temps and dry weather. As a mid level shortwave approaches from the west, some increase in clouds is expected during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Tue...High pressure will remain in control into the weekend, grad sliding offshore late weekend and early next week. Above normal temps will continue through the period. High pressure continues to build in Wed night, as a shortwave approaches the FA from the NW sinking Sward offshore along with broad upper low Thu leading to another round isolated showers Wed night into Thu, mainly along the coast. Decent dry slot in the midlevel lead to less than impressive PWats which will really dampen the chance of appreciable rainfall over land, with the exception being the Outer Banks. High pressure builds in to end the week and this weekend with ridging at the SFC building Sward over the FA and an amplifying ridge aloft extends Nward from the Gulf States. Mostly dry weather expected with only chances for iso coastal showers. High pressure will grad shift off the coast late weekend and early next week, as low pressure lifts through the Mid-West while another low begins to strengthen over the Cuba/Bahamas region. Above normal temps expected through the period. Highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s Wed and Thu, then cont to warm late week and this weekend. Some inland sites may see 80 deg or lower 80s late week and over the weekend. Mild overnight lows as well, in the 50s-60s. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 717 PM Tue...High pressure with drier air builds into the region behind an exiting cold front tonight and Wed with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Bkn cirrus will stream through the region Wed. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Tue...A period of sub-VFR cigs will be possible with the shortwave and upper low Thursday. Otherwise, pred VFR conditions expected with high pressure in control. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 255 PM Tue...A cold front will be moving through the waters early this evening causing winds to shift from SW 10-15 kt to N around 15 kt. High pressure then builds over the waters tonight and Wed with winds continuing N around 15 kt. Seas will continue to 2-4 ft near shore and 3-5 ft offshore through Wed. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 315 AM Tue...Moderate N/NE flow 10-20 kt continues Wed night, with stronger NE winds expected Thu, increasing to 15-25 kt, diminishing to 10-20 kt Fri. SCAs likely to develop across the all the waters and possibly the sounds late Wed night and especially Thu, then likely continuing for the coastal waters through at least Sat. Guidance currently in good agreement showing SCA seas across the waters through the weekend with persistent fetch of moderate NE-E flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/TL SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/TL MARINE...JME/CQD