605 FXUS64 KBRO 300515 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Building high pressure and nearly zonal flow aloft keeps things pleasant and quiet in the short term, as one mid-level trough swings out of East Texas and another eventually develops across West Texas. Northwesterly winds diminish this evening and turn easterly on Sunday, with RH values generally less than 40 percent each afternoon. Some minor coastal flooding may be possible along narrow beaches this evening around high tide at 1125 PM, with MHHW water levels nearing 1 foot. With seas diminishing into this evening, there may not be enough push to run-up to the dunes, so a Coastal Flood Statement is probably not needed. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 The long-term setup begins with mid-level zonal flow transitioning to southwest flow Monday morning as a 500mb trough digs over northern Mexico/west Texas by Monday evening. The trough will lift northeast on Tuesday and help push a weak cold front through Deep South Texas. Rain chances, ahead of the approaching front/trough, will begin to increase beginning Monday afternoon and will peak overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Guidance indicates PWATs will increase to 1.7-1.9 inches, in the 90th percentile for late October, by Monday evening and persist through Tuesday. This suggests potentially heavy rainfall may occur with a few showers/storms, especially overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as a mid-level vort max pivots over Deep South Texas. Nevertheless, kept PoPs on the conservative side for Monday night and Tuesday, capping values at 60% for now. The 500mb trough axis pushes east of the CWA by Tuesday evening and subtropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to build in over South Texas. However, a weak coastal trough at the surface may keep precipitation chances active through Tuesday night before subsiding. The weak cold front that is anticipated to push through on Tuesday morning or afternoon will not have much cold air advection associated with it, with winds quickly veering of the east or east-southeast by Wednesday afternoon. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will warm temperatures back above seasonal average by Thursday. A more significant and positively- tilted 500mb trough will dig over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest late in the week and eventually over west Texas by next weekend. In response, a series of surface lows will develop across the Plains late in the week, causing local southeast winds to become very breezy and gusty during the daytime Thursday- Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 VFR conditions will persist during the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable during the overnight hours, then shift easterly on Sunday, while remaining light. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Now through Sunday Night...Marine conditions are expected to continue to improve through the weekend, with northwesterly winds diminishing into this evening and eventually turning easterly into Sunday. Small Craft Caution conditions continue this afternoon with brief gusts to 20 kts or slightly above and moderate seas of 4 to 6 feet into early this evening. Monday through Friday...Breezy and gusty easterly winds will cause adverse marine conditions Monday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday and Tuesday ahead of and along a weak cold front that will push over the waters on Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution and possibly brief Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible, especially behind the frontal boundary. Seas build up to 4 to 5 feet Monday night and Tuesday but quickly subside by Wednesday and return to 2 to 3 feet through Thursday morning. Winds will increase again Thursday as low pressure develops across the Plains, causing seas to build 5 to 7 feet by the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 58 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 56 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 53 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 77 71 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 58 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....67-Mejia AVIATION...64-Katz