432 FXUS63 KLBF 271803 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 103 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 The forecast focus in the short term will be rain shower chances today across the east followed by warmer and dry conditions Friday. A positively tilted upper trough currently extended from eastern MT through WY and UT into AZ with a closed low centered over northeastern UT. Southwesterly flow aloft is present across western NE with a disturbance currently moving northeast across the area. Showers are currently increasing in coverage as they move into central NE and are forecast to move through eastern portions of north central NE thorugh daybreak. Lingering scattered to isolated showers will remain possible this morning, gradually ending in the east this afternoon. This is supported by the latest HREF ensemble members. Additional development later this afternoon into early evening is indicated as well from north central KS into south central and southeast NE. This is expected to largely remain east of the forecast area, but have included a slight chance across far southeastern zones into early this evening. Mainly cloudy skies through mid morning, with clearing from northwest to southeast into the afternoon. Highs will range mostly in the mid 50s. Tonight, cloudy are likely to persist across the southeast and hold lows up into the low to mid 30s. with clear skies in the west, lows will be in the mid to upper 20s. There is the possibility for some patchy fog late tonight through 15z Friday. This is shown by the RAP and 03Z SREF. Probabilities are fairly low at 10 to 20 percent, so will hold off the mention attm. Turning sunny Friday, with warm air advection and upper ridging returning to the area. Highs reaching the lower 60s with southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 The forecast focus in the long term will be dry conditions with slightly above normals temperatures this weekend, followed by even warmer temperatures through the middle of next week. The closed low will move from north TX into AR Friday night into Saturday. Weak flow aloft will reside over the Central Plains with mild and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday and highs in the 60s. Upper ridging will develops across the Central U.S. Monday through Wednesday as a fairly deep upper trough moves onto the West Coast and eventually into the Great Basin. This is now agreed upon by the 00z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian model. This will also promote dry conditions. The latest MOS guidance supports highs from the upper 60s to near 75. Currently forecast is for mid 60s to around 70. Regarding fire weather concerns, humidity may fall as low as 20 to 25 percent Sunday through Tuesday, with winds mainly from the southwest. This could result in elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Light rain across north central Nebraska will continue to move eastward and out of the area this afternoon. Winds will remain light, generally under 10 kts through the forecast period. There will be the potential for patchy fog to develop this evening through the overnight. The greatest potential for patchy fog will be across north central Nebraska including KONL terminal and into southwest Nebraska, including KLBF terminal. At this time, forecast confidence is medium that fog should remain just to the east of KVTN terminal. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Gomez