580 FXUS62 KMHX 271131 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 731 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the west again today into the weekend with cool, dry weather. The next storm system will arrive early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 AM Thu...Looks like the diffuse cold front has moved offshore as evidenced by a tightening pressure gradient and increased flow currently occurring. The last patches of dense fog have just dissipated as expected as cold advection has commenced across the region. The front will stall off the coast later today as high pressure builds in from the north as a result there should be a gradient in cloud cover this afternoon with the coast remaining mostly cloudy while inland partly to mostly sunny skies develop over the coastal plain during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An increasing pressure gradient between the high building in from the north and the front offshore will also lead to strengthening northerly winds across the area, which will be strongest along the coast where winds expected to gust to 25-30 mph. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 600 AM Thu...Cooler air will continue to flow across eastern NC tonight as high pressure ridges in from the north in a classic CAD pattern common this time of year. Still expecting considerable clouds along the coast and could even see a stray light shower late vicinity of the southern Outer Banks as precipitation develops offshore in vicinity of the stalled front. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and around 60 coast. Gusty winds will continue along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Strong ridge of high pressure to our north will interact with a broad offshore low that will remain relatively stationary through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient even more and increase windy N-NEerly conditions along the OBX and coastal areas Friday into Saturday. Guidance also showing persistent onshore NErly flow will result in increasing cloud coverage Friday with a chc for some light drizzle or showers along the coast through Saturday. Continued tweaks will be possible in the coming days depending on forecast trends. Cooler temps are forecast on Friday and Saturday as well with aftn high temps in the upper 60s both days. Could start seeing high pressure shift north and east on Sunday as another low pressure system across the south central US inches towards the southern MS River Valley. Still expecting a mostly dry day Sunday at the moment, but precip chances will begin to inc Sunday night and into Monday once high pressure retreats northward. Early next week...One low pressure system moving north across Appalachia dragging a cold front Eward along with it and the second low meandering off SECONUS coast. A warm front draped between the two Lows will lift N through the area first, followed by passage of the cold front Monday night. Precip chances linger into Tuesday before both systems eventually push out of the region sometime late Tue into Tue night. These two days will be the warmest in the period with highs in the mid to upper 70s and muggy overnight lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. Rest of next week...High pressure builds in behind the front with the pair of SFC lows departing to the NE leading to benign conditions across the FA with near normal temps, Highs in the low 70s and Lows in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 730 AM Thu..."Sneak Attack" low Stratus clouds with IFR ceilings have developed behind the cold front this morning. Think these clouds will mix out 14-15Z with diurnal heating but guidance is not handling this situation well. Expect ceilings at the TAF sites to be VFR this afternoon, possibly lowering to MVFR around dawn Friday. North winds will gust up to 20 kt. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...High pressure keeps a hold over the FA through Sat with VFR conditions prevailing. Gusty NNE winds 20-30 kts will impact the OBX airspace beginning Thu and into Sat night before beginning to diminish Sun. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 600 AM Thu...Small craft advisories are in effect as northerly flow increases by 12Z this morning behind a cold front. N winds will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kt, while seas increase to 5-7 ft. Winds are forecast to continue 20-25 kt tonight along with 5-7 ft seas. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...SCA continue for coastal waters and major rivers & sounds through most of the weekend into early next week. An offshore low keeps a tight pressure gradient against high pressure across the area, maintaining SCA criteria Friday and into Saturday. Seas will steadily build to 5-7 ft Friday, peaking at 5-10ft late Saturday, highest over outer central waters. Winds begin to relax late Sat night into Sunday allowing the wind driven SCAs over inland rivers/sounds to begin stepping down, diminishing to 15-20 kts by Sunday night, though seas will be slower to respond, remaining at 4-8 ft late Sunday. Seas lay down from S to N with coastal SCAs beginning to expire early Monday AM. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...ML/CEB AVIATION...JME/CEB MARINE...JME/CEB