610 FXUS64 KBMX 191110 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 610 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2022 After a cold and frosty start this morning, temperatures will warm up into the 50s and low 60s with plenty of sun. Another cold night on tap for overnight into Thursday morning, with high pressure settling on top of the area. An additional freeze warning has been issued with low temperatures expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s again. Warming a few more degrees on Thursday with highs generally in the low to mid 60s. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2022 A lingering trough over the Southeast will weaken and drift offshore Thursday night through Friday night, as shortwave ridging builds in ahead of a flat ridge over south Texas and Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the northern Gulf northeastward up the East Coast. Low-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley across northwest Alabama up into the Ohio Valley. With another night of clear skies and light winds, expect low temperatures on the cool side of guidance again Thursday night with areas of frost developing especially in rural areas. Expect another freeze in some of the cooler northeastern valleys which always seem to take a couple nights to "warm up". Will not issue a freeze watch with the expectation that the growing season will have ended by then in those areas, but a frost advisory may eventually be needed in areas where the growing season continues. Southerly winds and warm air advection should send high temperatures closer to normal on Friday. Flat ridging and westerly flow aloft will be in place over the weekend while a deep trough develops over the western CONUS. Expect high temperatures on the warm side of guidance and low temperatures on the cool side of guidance as the air mass remains dry with great weather for outdoor activities. There continues to be a lot of spread in the ensembles regarding the timing of the trough next week and details of embedded shortwaves within it, due to phasing issues with a southern stream cutoff low west of Baja as well as the mid-level remnants of an expected eastern Pacific tropical system. Expect a frontal passage and at least some rain sometime during the first half of the next week, but will stick with the broadbrush NBM 20-30% PoPs for now given the ensemble spread. Instability appears limited and thunder potential is too low to mention in the forecast at this time despite available shear. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2022 VFR for a prolonged period to continue. NW winds this morning around 10 kts through the afternoon. Dropping back to less than 5 kts after 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will fall below 25 percent across all of Central Alabama Wednesday and Thursday afternoons as well as Friday and Saturday afternoons in eastern portions of Central Alabama. 20ft winds remain less than 10 mph, shifting from northwesterly today to southwesterly on Friday and southerly over the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record lows for October 19: Birmingham: 29 (1948) Tuscaloosa: 28 (1948) Anniston: 30 (1948) Montgomery: 34 (1948) Record lows for October 20: Birmingham: 32 (1964,1913) Tuscaloosa: 32 (1989,1948) Anniston: 29 (1948) Montgomery: 32 (1989) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 28 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 61 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 61 33 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 62 31 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 61 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 61 34 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 64 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 62 32 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...16