137 FXUS63 KDLH 162355 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 655 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Summary: Scattered rain showers this afternoon are expected to transition to snow this evening. Heavy lake-effect snow is expected in Iron County within the higher elevations of the Penokee Range, with accumulations of 8-11 inches possible. Accumulations of 3-6 inches may also be possible in the higher elevations of eastern Ashland County and the extreme northeast corner of Price County. Elsewhere, snow totals will be an inch or less. Quieter weather starts for most Monday into Tuesday and will persist throughout much of the upcoming week. Rain showers have been occurring this afternoon as a strong trough swings southeast through the CWA. As much colder temps aloft at 850mb have been filtering into the area, snow has been mixing in with the rain before transitioning to all snow. Expect any lingering rain showers to fully transition over to snow by late this evening across the Northland. New snow accumulations, excluding areas affected by lake-effect snow in Iron and Ashland Counties, will see amounts of an inch of less. This light snowfall is expected to be concentrated along and north of U.S. 2 in MN and along and east of U.S. 53 in WI. Of much greater concern tonight into Monday will be lake-effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Lake sfc temps per latest obs around the South Shore are currently around 10-12 degC. Aloft, 850mb temps around -5 degC this afternoon will drop to around -10 degC by early Monday morning. This large delta-T of around 20 degrees will likely produce lake-induced CAPE values of around 800- 1000 J/kg late tonight into Monday morning. Expect lake-effect rain currently occurring along the South Shore this afternoon to transition to snow this evening as CAA occurs and cool sfc temps below freezing. Snow accumulations tonight through Monday afternoon will be highest in the higher elevations of the Penokee Range in Iron County. The Winter Storm Warning for Iron County has been continued, since 8 to 11 inches of lake-effect snow is likely tonight through Monday afternoon. This afternoon, A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for Ashland County starting this evening and continuing through Monday afternoon. This is due to the likelihood of 3 to 6 inches of lake- effect snow in the higher elevations, mainly around Mellen and areas southeast of Mellen. Price County was left out of the advisory, since accumulations of 3+ inches will be confined to the extreme northeast corner of the county. Expect conditions to begin easing on Monday as the trough advects eastward and an associated strong low pressure system moves out of the area. Winds will slowly shift more westerly by mid-week and eventually southerly by Friday, which will produce WAA. This WAA will increase temps for the latter half of the upcoming week, with highs returning to the 50s and around 60 by Friday. Precip chances will be limited this upcoming week after Monday, with the best chance being next Friday as a shortwave trough moves through. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front will push across the Northland this evening bringing gusty winds and snow showers to the region. While the snow showers will taper off overnight into Monday morning, the winds will remain breezy through much of the period. MVFR to VFR ceilings will be seen this evening with improvements to VFR as the night progresses. VSBYs will drop to MVFR or lower at times in snow showers. VFR conditions will then predominate for Monday with breezy northerly winds persisting with gusts to 20 to 25 knots. HYR will be on the edge of lake-effect snow showers that will last through the day Monday. Have kept MVFR CIGs in place there with VCSH until the lake-effect gets going and we get a handle on how far west they will be. && .MARINE... Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A strong low pressure system expected to move through the Great Lakes region will produce strong northwest to north winds over western Lake Superior. Gale-force winds will develop this evening across the South Shore from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor, excluding Chequamegon Bay, as well as along the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. A Gale Warning continues to be in effect for the aforementioned nearshore waters, starting this evening and continuing into Monday evening due to wind gusts up to 40 knots. The remaining nearshore waters around western Lake Superior are under a Small Craft Advisory, since winds will be approaching 30 knots outside of the Gale Warning. Waves will be building across a large portion of the South Shore and are expected to remain elevated through Tuesday. Gusty north-northwest winds are likely to begin easing on Tuesday as the pressure gradient loosens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 34 21 39 / 20 20 0 0 INL 21 32 19 38 / 30 10 0 0 BRD 23 34 20 38 / 10 0 0 0 HYR 23 34 20 40 / 30 20 0 0 ASX 27 37 25 41 / 50 60 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for WIZ004. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ146>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Unruh AVIATION...BJH MARINE...Unruh