539 FXUS62 KTAE 162348 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 748 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Airmass moderation continues as surface high pressure gives further way to an approaching cold front from the northwest. Muggy dew points in the 60s overspread the service area tonight while winds become light/calm. This set up is ideal for fog/low stratus development in the early-morning hours. The official forecast calls for patchy fog initially forming over the western FL Panhandle as early as midnight, then spreading to southeast AL, portions of southwest GA, and the FL Big Bend towards daybreak. Greatest confidence in fog coverage is mainly west of Apalachicola River where "areas of fog" are explicitly mentioned. These locations are supported by guidance and shallow moist layers depicted in time- height cross sections. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the 60s (around 70 near the coast), which are a few degrees above daily normals. After the fog/low stratus burns off within a few hours of sunrise, attention turns to the cold front poised to move into the region tomorrow. Sufficient moisture and lift accompanying this boundary justifies reintroducing rain chances with a few thunderstorms possible. The greatest potential is along the coast, southeast FL Big Bend, and Suwannee Valley where the best instability resides. Although organized severe weather is not a concern, some strong storms posing a gusty wind threat cannot be ruled out thanks to 50- kt+ flow aloft. Overall, the likely outcome is isolated to scattered convection under mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon with high temperatures in the low 80s. Full frontal passage holds off until the beginning of the short-term period. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front will continue to push southeastward across the area and into Central Florida Monday night with much drier and cooler conditions expected in its wake. Northerly surface winds and northwesterly steering flow will continue to reinforce the dry and cool air mass through the rest of the short term period. High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast in the low 60s to low 70s, with low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 30s to near 40 Tuesday night. This would be the coolest night of the season so far. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Dry and cool conditions will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the long term period with surface high pressure slowly moving from northwest of the region to northeast. A very slow warming and moistening trend is expected through the rest of the week with high temperatures starting out in the 60s on Wednesday and gradually rising into the low 80s Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to remain quite cool Wednesday night with surface high pressure nearby and clear skies overhead. Wednesday night may end up being the coldest of the week with the most efficient radiational cooling expected, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s. Moistening through the week will allow lows to rebound back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions prevail through the early part of the night but after 06z expect widespread IFR/LIFR conditions to develop across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama zones due to dense fog and low ceilings. ECP/DHN/ABY could see brief periods of VLIFR conditions around sunrise Monday. VFR conditions return slowly in the morning with most terminals back to VFR by 14-15z. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front forecast to push through the waters Monday and Monday night will likely bring small craft advisory conditions with breezy northwest to north winds in its wake. Winds remain offshore and subside to cautionary around midweek before gradually relaxing even more heading towards the weekend. Otherwise, fairly benign boating conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A temporary moistening trend continues through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Areas of fog and low stratus are a concern early tomorrow morning, especially along a west of a Tifton-to-Crawfordville line. Modest rain chances with perhaps a few thunderstorms are confined mainly along/south of the I- 10 corridor and Suwannee Valley Monday afternoon as the front pushes across the Tri-state area. Low dispersions briefly overtake locations from the FL Big Bend, westward between noon and 2PM ET with pockets of high dispersions around Valdosta. Breezy north winds usher in a very dry airmass after frontal passage on Tuesday. The combination of critically low min RH (widespread low to mid 20s outside of the southeast FL Big Bend), dry fuels, and breeziness implies elevated fire danger. Thankfully, cooler temperatures will also be present to perhaps help mitigate the threat. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, but winds should ease off some by then. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 84 57 67 / 0 30 10 10 Panama City 68 81 55 67 / 20 30 10 10 Dothan 62 80 48 62 / 0 10 10 0 Albany 62 83 50 63 / 0 10 10 0 Valdosta 61 84 56 66 / 0 30 10 0 Cross City 63 83 62 74 / 20 50 20 10 Apalachicola 69 81 60 69 / 20 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for FLZ007>014- 016. GA...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for GAZ155-156. AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for ALZ068. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...Merrifield