051 FXUS64 KOUN 162329 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 629 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cold front will continue to shift south through southern Oklahoma into north Texas this morning as the first of a couple of cooler airmasses overspreads the southern Plains. Still appears that there will be a good chance of rain and a few thunderstorms throughout the day today across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Instability will be rather limited and no severe weather is anticipated, however some isolated heavy rainfall will be possible. Along with the rain chances shifting south, much cooler temperatures are expected as the cooler air filters south behind the cold front. Afternoon temperatures will top out in 60s and lower 70s. Some lingering showers will continue across western north Texas Sunday night, otherwise cooler and drier conditions expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A second reinforcing shot of colder air will slide south through the Plains on Monday and Monday night. This will set the stage for the coolest/coldest temperatures of this fall season. Much of the area will drop into the 30s by Tuesday morning with the possibility of a light freeze across north central Oklahoma. Daytime temps may struggle to warm as well with highs only in the 50s across much of the area. As the high settles south over eastern Oklahoma Wednesday morning some areas may again see freezing temperatures from portions of northern into eastern and southeast Oklahoma. Farther west temperatures expected to remain above freezing and the drier air in place may limit the frost potential. Although models are trending colder during this time frame, so will need to watch this closely as freeze headlines will likely be needed. As high shifts east Wednesday into Thursday a warm up is expected as south winds return. Although models continue to bring a weak boundary south through the area Thursday, but the airmass behind this boundary will be coming off the high Plains. The downslope component should actually bring warmer air into the area. South winds return quickly however and look to be quite strong Friday. This may result in some elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures by the weekend back above normal with the possibility of some areas approaching 90 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Mid-level clouds will give way to clearing skies overnight. North to northeast winds will increase after sunrise tomorrow morning at most TAF sites with gusts mostly under 20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 45 60 36 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 47 63 37 59 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 52 65 40 60 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 38 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 60 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 52 65 38 58 / 20 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for OKZ004>013-015-017>020-024>026-029>032. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for OKZ004>013-015>020-022>032-035-038>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09