466 FXUS64 KLUB 162325 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The cold front that sparked the rain and thunderstorms last night and today has moved well to the south of the forecast area. Rain and thunderstorms are currently moving northeast across West Texas. Several thunderstorms have produced brief heavy rain in the last couple of hours. Water vapor imagery shows rich moisture over West Texas with PWAT values currently peaking around 1.25" in the area. Although PWATs will begin to gradually trend down tonight and tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will continue as an upper level closed low currently located in Arizona continues to move east. As the low moves closer to west Texas, isentropic upglide will increase and lead to continued widespread rainfall with the highest rain totals again in the South Plains and the Rolling Plains. Although rain coverage has trended down in the last hour, it is expected to ramp up again this evening and tonight as the stronger large scale ascent spreads into the area. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected again tonight and tomorrow before a northeast to southwest decrease in coverage tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures tonight will only cool slightly due to the continued precipitation and overcast skies and tomorrow will be cool again with high temperatures in the 50s and low-60s areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The influence of upper level low pressure will finally diminish by Monday night as residual troughing absorbs into strong NW flow on the backside of broad upper low pressure over the Great Lakes region. The upper level pattern will remain highly amplified through much of the week with continued eastern troughing and persistent ridging over the Intermountain West, therefore keeping dry NW flow aloft in place over West Texas. After one last cool day on Tuesday, a gradual warming trend through late week will boost high temperatures back into the mid/upper 70s by Friday with dry conditions continuing area-wide. Even so, chilly overnight lows are expected during the early portion of the week under clear skies, with the southern Panhandle and the NW South Plains seeing lows in the mid 30s. Otherwise, current expectation is that continued upper troughing to our east will keep layer thicknesses in check and prevent us from warming too much during the afternoons this week, but there is a chance highs may eventually need to be adjusted a bit upward during the late week period given potentially stronger downsloping SW surface flow. Forecast confidence decreases into next weekend as guidance differs regarding the evolution of the next Pacific cutoff low. Ensemble cluster analysis points to two potential scenarios - a more progressive outcome favoring more zonal flow over the western CONUS and a weaker upper low, as well as a slower solution with a stronger cutoff low. Regardless of the eventual outcome, it does appear that any resulting impacts to sensible weather will be delayed until early next week, with mild and dry weather currently still favored through this weekend. /DWK && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR and MVFR will prevail through the remainder of the evening and overnight at KPVW and KLBB. Expect scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms through tonight and Monday morning. IFR ceilings are possible during the overnight as well, especially at KLBB. Conditions at KCDS are expected to remain in VFR through the forecast period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...55