269 FXUS62 KMFL 162324 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 724 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Latest RAP and surface analysis shows high pressure off the SE coast and whats left of a weakening frontal boundary across the straits of Florida. There is also a frontal boundary that stretches from the SW US through the deep south, and then NE up towards the Great Lakes region, with multiple areas of low pressure along the front. At the upper levels, there is a deep trough moving across the Great Lakes, and an area of low pressure over the desert SW. With surface high pressure in control today, much of the area will be dry, however lingering moisture near and along the weakening front will kick off some showers and storms this afternoon into early this evening, with the highest chance PoPs over far S/SW FL. Morning sounding showed MU CAPE values around 2500 J/Kg and DCAPE values around 600 J/Kg. While severe storms are not expected, a few stronger storms are possible, mainly over the interior and towards the Gulf coast, with strong winds over 40 mph the main threat. A few lingering showers/storms are possible near the coasts overnight, but otherwise clear to partly cloudy with low temps in the upper 60s around the lake, to low and middle 70s elsewhere. As the surface high shifts further to the east on Monday, the low level flow becomes more southerly. At the same time, a cold front begins to approach from the NW and reaches northern FL by Monday evening. PWAT values are expected to increase to around 2 inches with some interior locations approaching 2.25 inches during the afternoon. Expect a wider coverage of storm activity on Monday, although 12Z CAMS are still nowhere near in agreement, with some solutions showing a fairly wet Monday and others showing much drier solutions. Stayed fairly close with the previous forecast and capped PoPs at 40%. Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 80s over most of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will push an associated frontal boundary across the southeastern United States into the peninsula of Florida on Tuesday. With plentiful moisture ahead of the boundary and the drier, cooler air trailing it, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the week. The parent low will sit over the Great Lakes until late week, allowing the frontal boundary to meander over the central and southern portions of the peninsula. With that, the region will remain in a wet pattern through late portions of the week when the parent low finally ejects north and east into Canada, allowing the frontal boundary to clear through southern Florida into the straits and Bahamas. Some portions of Southwest Florida could possibly see the dry air arrive by Wednesday or Thursday, which could help temperatures there dip into the 50s or lower 60s by Thursday morning. Some remoistening through the end of the week, particularly along the Atlantic coast, could allow rain chances to sneak back in by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 724 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds beginning to shift more east- southeast through the period. Sea-breeze driven convection is likely for east and west coast sites beginning around 18Z. Short-fuse amendments may be necessary if thunderstorms propagate too close to sites although most activity should shift inland later into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Near-cautionary east to northeasterly winds will persist across area waters into early this evening, with seas running in the 3-5 ft range over the Atlantic waters (highest near the Gulf Stream). Winds and seas will decrease Monday into Tuesday before potentially increasing again towards the middle of the week behind a cold front. Storm chances will be lowest today, before increasing again early this week as a frontal boundary approaches the area and then crosses the south FL waters mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Breezy E/NE flow will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches today, with the risk becoming lower for Monday and Tuesday as the winds decrease and eventually shift offshore by Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 76 89 / 20 50 30 50 West Kendall 73 88 72 88 / 20 50 30 50 Opa-Locka 74 87 74 88 / 20 50 30 50 Homestead 74 86 73 87 / 30 50 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 87 75 87 / 20 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 75 87 / 10 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 74 86 74 87 / 20 50 30 50 West Palm Beach 74 87 73 87 / 10 50 30 50 Boca Raton 75 88 74 88 / 10 50 30 50 Naples 71 85 74 83 / 30 50 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Rizzuto