644 FXUS61 KCTP 162232 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 632 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Following a seasonably warm and pleasant end to the weekend, the coldest air so far this season will bring below normal temperatures to central Pennsylvania through late week. The cold air may also deliver the first snow accumulation to parts of northwest Pennsylvania. Dry weather and moderating temperatures are forecast Friday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Jet streak and associated batch of rain entering Virginia will likely remain south of the forecast area this evening, but can't rule out a shower over the southeast corner of the forecast area late this evening. Focus then shifts to digging trough approaching from the Grt Lks. The associated occluded front is progged to push through central Pa between 09Z-18Z. Limited moisture should result in only widely scattered showers with the fropa, with better large scale forcing resulting in the best chance of measurable rain over the northwest mountains early Monday morning. Dry slot is progged to work into the region behind the front Monday. However, cold temps aloft and meager diurnal heating should result in a fair amount of cu/stratocu over the Alleghenies with a stray afternoon shower possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Anomalous (-2 to -3SD) 500mb trough carving out along the Appalachians will deliver the coldest air so far this season to CPA early this week. Max temps drop 5-15F each day with fcst highs -10 to -20F below climo by Tuesday in the upper 30s to near 50F. It will be breezy which will make it feel even colder (20s-30s) over the western Alleghenies. A freeze watch was issued Monday night with highest confidence of subfreezing temps over the Laurel Highlands. Refer to climo section for updates on counties no longer active in the growing season. Bulk of light precip will be confined along the western elevations (<0.10 fcst east of US219) with max QPF closer to the Lake Erie shoreline given mean WSW flow. Temps sfc and aloft cold enough to support lake enhanced/orographic rain to snow shower transition Monday night into early Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night. The first snow accumulation (1-3") is most likely in the favored lake effect belt particularly in NW Warren County. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not too many changes to the long-term forecast with today's update. Still looking at the deep trough/cut-off low to bring anomalously cold temperatures for the early and middle part of the week. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will produce lake-effect snow and rain showers over far northwestern Pennsylvania into Wednesday night. Some flurries may even make it as far east and central Pennsylvania on Wednesday. The upper-level low starts to pull away on Thursday. Aside from occasional sprinkles/flurries in far northwestern PA, Thursday should be a mainly dry day across PA. The upper-level pattern will moderate as we end the week, with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s for highs. Friday and beyond looks like a long stretch of dry weather. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions under a high BKN-OVC will continue through 00Z. Wind gusts typically below 10KT and will diminish further toward sunset. Clouds will increase tonight as a frontal system approaches from the west. Scattered light rain showers are possible across the NW, perhaps as early as the predawn hours Mon, but most showers will hold off until after sunrise. Outlook... Mon night-Wed...Colder with a breezy SW-W flow and daytime rain/ nighttime snow showers across N/W PA. Thu...Slight chance of a lingering shower NW, otherwise mainly VFR && .CLIMATE... Based on a collection of observations from a variety of sources that indicated widespread freezing conditions, we have ended the growing season for Warren County. The growing season was ended for Potter, Elk, and McKean Counties on October 9th. && .EQUIPMENT... Scheduled maintenance on many regional ASOS sites will occur over the next few weeks. Interruptions to mainly the wind sensor data, but, at times, much of the observation data, can be expected to be impacted/unavailable. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for PAZ011-012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Buvala AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...