699 FXUS66 KMFR 162204 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 304 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...The forecast models are in very good agreement through Friday afternoon, which coincides with the end of our lengthy current ridge dominated pattern with unusually warm and dry conditions inland and night and morning stratus near the coast. Confidence is high in a pattern change at the end of the week. From Friday night into Sunday, it is a near certainty that we will at least receive colder temperatures and an increase of clouds with a series of disturbances moving southeast from Alaska across the Pacific Northwest. But, there remains a wide variation in ensemble members regarding just how strong (how cold and wet) the disturbances will be. The probability of precipitation is highest late Friday night into Saturday in southwest Oregon, northern Klamath County, and western Siskiyou County. The forecast utilizes the blended model solution, which appropriately reflects a balance between a wetter/colder/windier solution as indicated by the ECMWF and the large majority of its family of ensemble members, and the noticeably weaker, much shorter-lived episode of active weather indicated by the GFS and its ensemble members. While the main difference late this week is in the strength of a cold front and trailing shortwave disturbances, there is low confidence in whether the start of the 8 to 10 day period will be characterized by a ridge building over the eastern Pacific Ocean, or whether the storm door will remain open for the next trough to follow a similar track southeastward into our area. In either case, we will not be returning to what we have experienced so far this month, with either a continuation of a trough dominated pattern or a shift back to such a pattern in the middle of next week. In the meantime, the coast will see seasonable temperatures this week with a renewed push of marine stratus into the Umpqua Valley tonight into Monday morning, and light to moderate low level easterly winds Monday night into Thursday morning that will limit the extent of stratus to much nearer to the immediate coast. Inland, modestly cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will still be around 15 degrees above normal, followed by a slight warming trend Wednesday into Thursday. Friday will be the transition day with largely dry weather, about a 10% probability of rain reaching the Douglas and Coos coast before the end of the day, and an increase of high clouds ahead of the long awaited cold front that will usher in the change in our weather. The current forecast is for snow levels to drop to the higher terrain of the Cascades for Saturday into Sunday. Also, between Friday night and Sunday afternoon to receive around a quarter of an inch to an inch of precipitation in southwest Oregon, a tenth to a half inch in south central Oregon, and up to a quarter of an inch in northern California. Inland highs next weekend are forecast to be mainly in the 50s and 60s, around 20 to 25 degrees colder than they are this weekend. && .AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...Last minute IFR stratus moved into Roseburg this morning, but these lower conditions should become VFR in the next hour or so. A mix of MVFR and IFR will persist along portions of the coast this afternoon, though recently, some holes have been opening up at North Bend. Have opted to give them at least a few hours of VFR this afternoon. Stratus returns (IFR/MVFR) to all these same areas this evening/overnight. Farther inland south of the Umpqua Divide and also east of the Cascades, other than some hazy skies due to persistent wildfire smoke, expect VFR to prevail through the next 24 hours. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday 16 October 2022...Moderate southerly winds will produce steep, short period seas over portions of the outer waters north of Nesika Beach into this evening. Conditions then improve overnight into Monday. Winds are expected to become northerly Tuesday then strengthen and persist through the end of the week. This could produce steep to very steep seas at times Wednesday and Thursday, with winds and seas gradually subsiding Friday. -Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT 16 October 2022...Late summer like conditions will continue through Thursday with strong valley/ridge inversions at night and unseasonably warm and dry afternoons. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler and humidities slightly higher on Friday as high pressure weakens. Confidence is increasing in a significant pattern change next weekend with temperatures cooling to seasonal normals. Wetting rains are possible across portions of the area this weekend, but exactly where and how much is uncertain at this point. While confidence is low in the details, confidence is higher that conditions will finally resemble those more typical for this time of year. -CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376. && $$ DW/CC/Spilde